the essential
Currently unable to find majorities on budgetary texts, the Prime Minister finds himself under the threat of censure from the Assembly which could occur as early as this week.
The latest negotiations this weekend do not bode well for Michel Barnier. Back against the wall, the Prime Minister should have no other choice than to trigger the famous article 49 paragraph 3 of the Constitution to have the Social Security budget (PLFSS) adopted without a vote, returning to the Assembly this Monday .
The response would then not be long in coming: a motion of censure will be immediately tabled by the left. This would then be examined on Wednesday and it could be voted on by a majority of deputies, including those of the National Rally, towards whom all eyes have been converging for several days.
For Marine Le Pen, the government “ended the discussion”
Putting herself on the stage, Marine Le Pen herself seems to have whistled the end of recess yesterday at the end of the day by unilaterally considering that the government “ended the discussion” with her troops on possible modifications to the PLFSS, in particular concerning the partial deindexation of pensions in relation to inflation.
In his viewfinder, the declarations of the Minister of Public Accounts, who, a few hours earlier, had confirmed that it will indeed be the text voted in the joint committee (CMP) which will be presented to the deputies today. He was supported yesterday by the President of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet. “Which act,” reacted the president of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella. Through stubbornness and sectarianism, the government minority therefore puts an end to the cycle of negotiations, at the risk of provoking its censorship. »
In an interview this morning, Minister Laurent Saint-Martin indicates that the Social Security Financing Bill for 2025 will no longer be modified. Of which act.
Through stubbornness and sectarianism, the government minority therefore puts an end to the cycle of negotiations, at the risk…
— Jordan Bardella (@J_Bardella) https://twitter.com/J_Bardella/status/1863234075181391987?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
However, unlike the left, neither of the two heads of the RN called for censorship in the event of 49-3. “There is a chance that we will draw consequences from this extremely closed and sectarian behavior,” declared Marine Le Pen, however, in what looks like a thinly veiled threat.
Michel Barnier “remains open to dialogue”
Opposite, Matignon wants to be stoic. Michel Barnier “remains open to dialogue”, soberly informed the entourage of the head of government. The fact remains, on the eve of this crucial week, that the weekend will have in no way succeeded in moving the lines. In places, they have even hardened. In a letter addressed to Michel Barnier, the Socialist Party put an end to any idea of leniency on its part.
“You will leave us no other choice by committing 49-3 than to vote, with responsibility, for the censorship of your government,” wrote the first secretary Olivier Faure and the heads of parliamentary groups, Patrick Kanner (Senate) and Boris Vallaud (National Assembly).
There remains, in this stifling atmosphere, a final option for the executive: not to activate 49-3 and accept the rejection of the PLFSS by the Assembly.
This would then begin a new parliamentary shuttle. The oppositions are already denouncing the risk of getting bogged down and above all fear that after the regulatory deadline of fifty days following the tabling of the texts, the government could resort to ordinances to circumvent the parliamentary impasse. Suffice it to say, in this scenario, that the war of attrition with Michel Barnier would be far from over.
