Which teams can still qualify for the 2024 NBA Cup knockout stages?

The 2024 NBA Cup Group Play is in its final round, and the race to the knockout round has become more interesting. Friday night’s results changed all scenarios but also gave us one more team who have booked their ticket for Las Vegas. Big teams have faced a setback in the group stage, and this season, we might see a battle of underdogs.

NBA Cup format and Qualified Teams so far

Before going into the qualification scenarios, let’s understand the format of the NBA Cup first. All 30 teams have been divided into six groups, and each group has five teams. All teams play each other once and the team who will top their respective group will qualify for the knockout round.

The knockout round starts with the quarterfinal stage, where eight teams will participate. Six teams will qualify with their top position in the group. Two teams will be the wild-card entries through better rankings.

On Friday night, the Atlanta Hawks became the first team to qualify for the quarterfinals from the Eastern Conference. The Hawks ended the campaign for the Cavaliers, Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat, Brooklyn Nets, Philadelphia 76ers and last year’s NBA Cup runners-up, the Indiana Pacers. Apart from these teams, the Sacramento Kings, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Chicago Bulls have also been eliminated on Friday. Warriors and Rockets have qualified from Western Conference.

Tiebreaker rule

The tiebreaker rule will play a big role in deciding the remaining spot in the NBA Cup knockouts. If two or more teams in a group have equal records at the end of the group play, the following tiebreakers are applied in this order:

• Head-to-head record in the group stage
• Point differential in the group stage (overtime will not be added)
• Total points scored in the group stage (excluding overtime)
• Regular season record from the previous regular season
• Random drawing

Let’s understand the qualification scenarios through each conference:

Eastern Conference

Qualified teams: Atlanta Hawks

Eliminated teams: Cavaliers, Hornets, Heat, Nets, 76ers, Wizards, Pacers, Raptors

Still in contention: Pistons, Knicks, Celtics, Bucks, Magic, Bulls

Only three spots are left, and six teams are fighting for the qualification. Eastern Conference has an easy scenario for the knockout qualification. Let’s quickly go through each group and understand:

Group A

Orlando Magic and New York Knicks are fighting for the top spot. One team will take direct qualification, and the other will get a chance to reach knockouts as a wild card team. Both teams have posted a 3-0 record in group A and will take on each other on Tuesday. The winner will join Atlanta Hawks and we will have two spots remaining.

Group B

The same story applies on group B as the winner of Detroit Pistons and Milwaukee Bucks will qualify for the knockouts. With a record of 3-1, the losing side will join the runner-up side of group A in the position of wild-card entry.

Group C

Atlanta Hawks have already clinched the top spot, but now, all the attention will go on the reigning NBA Champions, Boston Celtics, who posted a record of 3-1 in their group.

How can the Boston Celtics qualify for NBA Cup knockouts?

The Celtics could qualify as the wild-card team if the point differential tiebreaker breaks their way. Boston has to monitor two important games in the Eastern Conference which will be played on Tuesday. Pistons/Bucks and Magic/Knicks will take on Celtics in the tiebreaker round. The loser of each game will be tied with the Celtics at 3-1.

Point differential will be key, and the Celtics have +23, which is only ahead of the New York Knicks (+15). The Celtics have to pray for the defeat of the Knicks in Group A and also pray for a good margin of win (more than 6 points) in the game between the Bucks and Pistons.

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Western Conference

Qualified teams: Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets

Eliminated teams: Jazz, Kings, Timberwolves, Bulls, Raptors, Pelicans,

Still in contention: Suns, Clippers, Mavericks, Grizzlies, Thunder, Blazers, Clippers, Lakers, Spurs, Nuggets

Western Conference is most complicated now as two teams have already booked their tickets to Las Vegas. Now, we have two spots left for the quarterfinals, one for the group winner and one for the wild-card team. Let’s quickly go through each group and understand:

Group A

With 3 wins out of 3, the Rockets have already clinched the group A. The Trail Blazers (2-1) and Clippers (1-2) are in contention for the wild-card entry. Both teams will meet in the last group play game on Tuesday and the winner will wait for the other results. If the Clippers win, both will be tied 2-2 and if the Blazers win, they will improve to 3-1. Ideally, the Blazers have more chances to qualify as a wild-card team.

Group B

Lakers and Jazz are eliminated but still, this group is more complicated as three teams stand with a 2-1 record. Any team can take direct qualification, and there is also no big margin in their point difference. Thunder will take on Jazz, and they can improve to 3-1, considering their form. The game between the Suns and Spurs will add more drama. If the Thunder lose, it will be easy for either the Suns or Spurs to qualify. If Thunder wins it, they will be tied on 3-1 with the winner of the Suns-Spurs game.

Group C

Golden State Warriors have already won group C and the Pelicans have been eliminated. Now the battle is among three teams: Mavericks (2-1), Nuggets (1-2) and Grizzlies (1-2). Dallas can improve to 3-1 if they beat the Grizzlies, and the defeat will eliminate Memphis. Nuggets will take on Warriors so it won’t be easy but if Dallas lose, they can improve to 2-2 with a surprise win.

What are the possibilities for the Western Conference?

Trail Blazers and Dallas Mavericks can potentially end with 3-1 to set a best scenario to qualify as a wild-card team. They will also be tied with one team from Group B. If Thunder loses, then this possibility will also be buried. Then, we have a tie-breaker between the teams who posted 3-1 in their group, where Dallas Mavericks have the advantage with a better point difference.

If Thunder wins, all teams will be eliminated who had a record of 2-2 in the group. It means, there is a slim chance for teams like Clippers, Nuggets and Grizzlies.