Michel Barnier, caught in the spiral of concessions to the RN, exposes himself to a double fault

POLITICS – He did not “ rolled on the ground » to become Prime Minister. Will he do it to stay that way? Whether to avoid the “ financial storm » which threatens France if it does not equip itself with its budget, as he asserts, or for his personal destiny, Michel Barnier is doing everything to remain in place at the head of his government.

The course is now clear: coax the National Rally whose leaders, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella at the head, continue to raise the threat of a motion of censure on budgetary texts (finances of the State and Social Security). ). Thus, Michel Barnier gave an update (without saying it) to the far-right party on three major subjects in less than a week.

Tuesday, the day after a meeting with the figurehead of the RN, the Prime Minister invited himself on TF1 in the 8 p.m. news, to announce a mission and a future law in the spring on proportional representation, a historic demand of the Lepénists . Thursday, in the columns of Figaro he explained that he was renouncing (for 3 billion euros) the surcharge on electricity, the RN's first request on the budget. Before advocating a crackdown on AME (State Medical Aid for undocumented immigrants), the ultimate totem of the far right.

The risk of an agreement

This first accumulation (which calls for others) testifies to the behind-the-scenes negotiations between Matignon and Marine Le Pen's entourage, in progress for several days. It also draws an ersatz political agreement between the “ common base » supporting the executive and the frontist party. A strategy perhaps inevitable for Michel Barnier, but necessarily risky.

With these concessions, the head of government – who owes his appointment in part to the leniency of the RN towards him – first of all continues to put the National Rally at the center of the game and attention, offering Marine Le Pen a strategic place from which it intends to derive all the benefits. An attitude certainly expected, several of his supporters in the Assembly hardly relishing a step towards the left even when the rebels are expunged, but which in recent days is taking on the appearance of a marriage of convenience. Which contrasts, however, with the result of the last legislative elections and the “ republican front » which was formed to prevent the coming to power of Jordan Bardella, his troops and their ideas.

The danger induced by these contradictions? An ever-increasing distrust of voters towards the political class, and a renewed skepticism about the usefulness of the vote. As a reminder, 7 out of 10 French people judged the Barnier government at the end of September to be inconsistent with the results of the last legislative elections. Even more concretely, these different hands extended to Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella continue to shake up the already fragile base supposed to support the action of the tenant of Matignon.

In this sense, the questioning of State Medical Aid is eloquent. “ At EPR, the deputies are shocked by the Prime Minister's declaration on the substantial reduction of the AME, notes an advisor to the executive, even if they know it's nonsense because it's only the Evin-Stefanini report, which saves 100,000 euros maximum. » In reality, the important thing is elsewhere, as certain reactions show: worried » among the Macronist deputies, faced with this question loaded with symbols.

“She’s the one who makes him dance”

In fact, Michel Barnier accedes to a favorite of the hardest right and the extreme right by announcing the reduction of the healthcare basket and a future reform of this aid intended for undocumented immigrants, for he says “ avoid abuse. » This is contrary to a large part of the political class (including within the government) or the health authorities, who also raise a question of public health. That “supports the thesis of a tango between Barnier and Le Pen”regrets a Macronist framework. Before admitting: “she’s the one who makes him dance. »

In this favorable context, the leaders of the National Rally do not hesitate to fill their shopping list, by multiplying the “ red lines “. Here comes the other major pitfall of Michel Barnier's strategy. By putting himself in the hands of the far-right party, he takes the risk of having to respond to its outbidding, at the risk of losing everything during the next budget deadlines. As if he had stumbled into a harmful spiral which, in addition to damaging him politically, could weaken the viability of his budgetary roadmap.

On the Social Security budget, Marine Le Pen's ultimatum concerns the cancellation of the reimbursement of medicines and the full revaluation of pensions in January. If he were to backpedal again, these two points would be particularly costly for Michel Barnier, who has set the restoration of public accounts as his absolute priority. But then? Greedy – why stop there? – the RN also calls for a tightening of the screws on immigration and security, but also the reduction of France's contribution to the European Union (currently 23 billion dinars). 'euros).

A subject that is certainly irritating for Michel Barnier, this “ patriot and European “, but which could above all give a cold sweat to his Macronist supporters, whose commitment to the EU is one of the founding elements. In this happy-go-lucky context, “ he seems ready to give up everything to maintain himself, both in terms of values ​​and budget”deplores a strategist from the presidential camp. Further to the left, we denounce a Prime Minister who “ chose dishonor to avoid censure. » At the risk of finally harvesting both?

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