Will fall, will not fall? The political microcosm is preparing for the fall of the Barnier government, prophesied for next week. Fourteen deputies and senators reached an agreement on Wednesday in a joint committee on the Social Security financing bill. Last step before the solemn vote on the “Secu budget”, Monday in the Assembly. Who has no chance – this is now a certainty – of being adopted regularly.
Michel Barnier therefore clarified Tuesday evening, on TF1which he will do “certainly” pass budgetary texts without a vote, as permitted by article 49 paragraph 3 of the Constitution. The New Popular Front confirmed at the start of the week, through Mathilde Panot, that it will respond to this with a motion of censure against the government. It will be debated forty-eight hours after its submission, on December 4.
By combining their votes that day, the left-wing groups, the National Rally (RN) deputies and their allies from the Union of Rights would force Michel Barnier to submit his resignation and that of his government to the President of the Republic. But would deprive France of budget. A hypothesis to which the Élysée, Matignon and the great chefs of the “common base” have long refused to believe, in the name of ” responsibility “ of their adversaries.
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A budget crash would not be without consequences
The “coalition of opposites” feared by Michel Barnier is nevertheless well in place. She is ready to vote, this Thursday, in the Assembly, the repeal of the 2023 pension reform. Supported by La France insoumise (LFI), she will have the votes of the National Rally and deputies from the other parties of the New Front popular, socialists included… burying in the process their own Touraine reform of 2013. The only recourse of the presidential camp, in order not to lose face during this session, will be to practice parliamentary obstruction.
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It's confusing, but it's clear that we are here: an opposition bloc has been formed, determined to stop the machine at the cost of contradictions and unnatural alliances, in the face of a minority power reduced to use delaying tactics to hold on.
Among his last chance attempts is the multiplication of alarmist messages broadcast this weekend: blocking of the Carte Vitale, the payment of pensions and the salaries of civil servants predicted by Élisabeth Borne on the sets of France 2 et LCI ; “Greek scenario” synonymous with placing the country under financial supervision due to bankruptcy brandished by Maud Bregeon, government spokesperson, in The Parisian… To which Marine Le Pen and Manuel Bompard (LFI) responded, separately but simultaneously, that these risks were, if not non-existent, very exaggerated.
They are not wrong without being completely right, and their eagerness to ensure that a rain of locusts will not fall on France clearly shows that the tenors of the RN and LFI are ready to throw the baby away with the 'bath water. The crash of the budget, even though the European Commission validated, this Wednesday, the trajectory of recovery of public accounts presented by France, will certainly not be cataclysmic, but not without consequences either. The confidence of our partners and investors in our ability to get out of the rut would take a hit. And no one knows what impact this loss of confidence will have on financial markets. Nor, by extension, on the country's economy, very far from being in its best shape.
