Deputies and senators found a compromise on Wednesday on the 2025 Social Security budget, a crucial step which could be swept aside with a bang in the event of censorship next week, while the RN assumes to keep a finger on the trigger.
This version of the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS) will be submitted one last time to deputies and senators, but it is above all the last hurdle in the Assembly which could make the executive and beyond dizzy. .
Virtually condemned to use his first 49.3 in the lower house on Monday and to face a motion of censure in response during the week, Michel Barnier warned against “the storm” that a fall of the government would trigger, particularly on the financial markets.
“The financial crisis has already started,” sharply replied RN MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy, citing the “spread”, the gap between French 10-year sovereign rates and those of Germany considered a safe haven in Europe, at its highest level since 2012.
Marine Le Pen asked for “clear and firm commitments on the abandonment of the 3 billion increases in the price of electricity (in the state budget), the abandonment of the delisting of new medicines and the deindexation of pensions “.
If they insist that the decision has not been made, the RN deputies – who will meet on Thursday at 2:00 p.m. to discuss the PLFSS – could bring down the government by voting on a motion with the left. And choose to do it on this Social Security budget without waiting for the final stretch of the State budget around December 18-20.
Failing to convince the RN, the government pointed to an “unbelievable responsibility” of the socialists, according to spokesperson Maud Bregeon. “We will never accept blackmail”, retorted the boss of the PS senators Patrick Kanner received at Matignon.
– “Transition budget” –
In the meantime, seven deputies and seven senators meeting in a joint committee (CMP), with a narrow majority for government support, decided on a version of the text which would be referred to the two chambers (Monday in the Assembly and Thursday in the Senate).
They notably found a compromise on a reduction in employer exemptions, amounting to asking for an effort of 1.6 billion from companies, with however a vote against from the Macronist group Ensemble pour la République on this article in particular, scalded by what it sees it as a renunciation of seven years of supply-side policy.
The left proposed returning to a senatorial version with 3 billion efforts. “Only the left voted for,” lamented rebel Hadrien Clouet.
“The government has created the conditions for its own censorship” said Jérôme Guedj (PS) more broadly. Environmentalists denouncing an “insincere and unfair” text.
The CMP validated a compromise on pensions, to index them to half of inflation from January 1 (+0.8%), with a supplement on July 1 for retirees below 1,500 euros gross with a view to reach +1.6%.
Parliamentarians also removed a senatorial measure, providing for seven hours of work without pay for active workers, supposed to bring in 2.5 billion. However, they approved a “soda tax” and a “rabbit tax”, a financial penalty against patients who do not honor medical appointments.
Finally, if the measure is not contained in the text itself, the government's intention to reduce Social Security reimbursements for consultations and medications by 5%, which should result in an increase in mutual prices, continues to arouse strong criticism from the left and the RN.
The text of the CMP “is not up to par”, and certain measures “may constitute red lines”, judged the RN deputy Christophe Bentz after the meeting.
The government initially forecast a deficit in the Social Security budget of 16 billion, which was weighed down by parliamentary compromises, an amount which remained difficult to calculate on Wednesday evening. Horizons president of the Social Affairs Committee at the Assembly Frédéric Valletoux spoke of a deficit “around 17 billion”.
Among the compensation measures, the rapporteurs have planned a reduction of 600 million in health insurance expenditure in 2025, denounced by the left. The general rapporteur to the Assembly Yannick Neuder (LR) defended the copy but also raised the hypothesis of an amending budget in 2025.
“It’s a transition budget”, “neither ambitious nor glorious”, Mr. Valletoux commented on Wednesday morning. Stéphanie Rist (EPR) spoke of a budget which “seems balanced and responsible”.
