Winter 2024-2025 is approaching and indeed the attention towards weather trends is growing.
The first analyses for the winter season are beginning to take shape, offering an initial picture of what might await us in the coming months.
Thanks to increasingly sophisticated weather models and technological advancements, it is possible to identify some interesting dynamics, while being aware that uncertainty remains a fundamental component of long-term forecasts.
December: will it be snow time?
December, the first month of the meteorological winter, seems to promise different climatic conditions compared to previous years. According to current projections, the Azores High could push towards higher latitudes, allowing humid and cold currents to affect much of Southern Europe.
This scenario could bring initially above-average seasonal temperatures, accompanied by an increase in precipitation, especially in mountainous areas.
Forecasts indicate that snow could fall abundantly in the Alps and the Apennines, but it would hardly reach the plains.
This is because the cold air masses necessary to bring snow to low altitudes could remain confined further north, while milder conditions would prevail in Italy.
However, the presence of a very humid flow could create a mix of heavy rains and significant snowfalls in high mountains.
Anticyclone always lurking
A crucial role in these forecasts is played by the Anticyclone, which, positioning itself at higher latitudes, could significantly alter the behavior of atmospheric currents.
This phenomenon, often referred to as “anticyclonic block,” tends to divert the cold air flow to other regions, leaving Southern Europe exposed to humid currents coming from the Atlantic.
One of the main consequences of this configuration is an anomalous warming in some areas of Northern Europe, such as Scandinavia and Russia, which traditionally act as cold reservoirs for the continent during the winter.
If these areas do not accumulate enough cold, Italy could experience a December with above-average temperatures, albeit accompanied by abundant precipitation.
January and February: the uncertainty of cold from the east
January and February are historically the coldest months of the year, but the climatic trend of recent years has shown how winter seasons are increasingly unpredictable.
After a mild December, it is possible that new incursions of cold air from Northern Europe or the Arctic could bring a sharp drop in temperatures, accompanied by more widespread snowfalls.
In particular, the interaction between High Pressure and cold currents could create scenarios of atmospheric instability, favoring the formation of snowfalls even at low altitudes.
However, everything will depend on the position of the Anticyclone and the strength of Atlantic disturbances, two elements that significantly influence the winter climate trend.
Short phases of frost and long warm phases
In recent years, winter has shown increasing variability, with periods of intense cold alternating with phases of unusually mild temperatures.
This phenomenon is linked to Global Warming, which is altering traditional weather patterns.
It is not uncommon to observe a winter with sudden frost phases followed by weeks of almost spring-like weather, a trend that could repeat itself in 2024-2025.
Long-term forecasts must therefore be interpreted with caution, as atmospheric dynamics can change rapidly, influenced by factors such as the jet stream and the interaction between ocean and atmosphere.
Although current models indicate a moderately mild winter, surprises cannot be ruled out, such as late cold waves or sudden snowfalls.
Winter weather remains a topic of great interest, with implications that go far beyond simple curiosity: from agriculture to tourism, to the management of infrastructure, the climatic conditions of December, January, and February will have a significant impact on daily life and the country’s economy.
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