Photo Credit: Randy Alona Gallegos
West Side
Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 65 to 72. East winds around 10 mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 76 to 82. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Side
Today: Sunny. Highs around 84. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 73. North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight.
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Friday: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 84. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
North Shore
Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Central Maui
Today: Sunny. Highs 78 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
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Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the south after midnight.
Friday: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 79 to 85. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Upcountry
Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. Light winds.
Friday: Sunny. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. Light winds.
East Maui
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Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Lanai City
Today: Sunny. Highs 70 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 63. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 71 to 78. North winds around 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Travel In Fours
Today: Sunny. Highs 67 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 56 to 72. East winds around 10 mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 66 to 85. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Synopsis
Gradually diminishing trade winds will deliver just a few light showers to windward areas of the smaller islands today, while windward Big Island will continue to receive passing showers. Light and variable winds and mostly dry weather are expected statewide from tonight into Sunday. A weak front may move over the islands from the northwest late this weekend. This front is expected to bring little in the way of rainfall, however, and winds will remain light through much of next week.
Discussion
Early this morning, weakening high pressure is located about 300 miles north of Honolulu, which is promoting light to moderate trade winds over the islands. Dry air and stable conditions are prevailing over most of the state, with the 12z Lihue sounding showing stable conditions and a strong inversion near 5,000 feet. CIMSS MIMIC Layer Precipitable Water (PW) imagery depicts values between roughly 0.75 and 1 inch nudging over the smaller islands from the east. Radar imagery also shows minimal shower activity over much of the state early this morning, with the the exception of windward Big Island where deeper mixing and lingering moisture upstream continue to produce scattered to numerous showers.
Gradually diminishing trade winds will deliver little in the way of rainfall to windward areas of the smaller islands today, while windward Big Island will continue to receive passing showers. Shower coverage and frequency over windward Big Island should taper off by tonight, however, as background trade winds weaken further and a land and sea breeze pattern develops statewide. This will occur as the high pressure north of the state moves south and dissipates, leaving a surface ridge near/over the islands. Light winds and mostly dry conditions will persist into at least Sunday, after which forecast details become a bit uncertain.
Late Sunday into Monday, a weak front is expected to approach from the northwest, and deterministic model guidance continues to offer inconsistent solutions for the prognosis of this feature and the evolution of the weather pattern early next week. Ensemble guidance, however, indicates that we can be confident that winds remain light and precipitation totals associated with the potential frontal passage will remain fairly low. A relatively dry post-frontal weather pattern should persist well into next week as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday.
Aviation
Trades will decrease gradually through Friday. Expect showery weather for windward Big Island through today, with periods of MVFR conditions. Some of the heavier showers may produce brief IFR conditions. Elsewhere, expect fair trade wind weather with a few light showers possible over windward and mauka areas.
AIRMET SIERRA is in effect for northeast through southeast slopes of the Big Island due to mountain obscuration above 2500 feet. This AIRMET will likely remain in effect through today as a persistent band of showery low clouds extending east from the Big Island continues to supply low clouds and showers to that island. No other AIRMETS are in effect or are expected.
Marine
Weak surface high pressure will settle in over the far north offshore waters today. This will create and maintain primarily gentle to locally moderate trades winds through the rest of the week. The west-to-east orientated ridge axis will reach the northern coastal waters by Friday. This will result in continued light to gentle east to variable breezes, with slightly stronger winds in the Alenuihaha Channel and south of Big Island. Light winds are favored ahead of the approach of a weak front nearing Kauai on Sunday. This shallow frontal passage will disrupt trade flow as early week gentle easterly breezes veer northwest then northeast.
No significant swells are expected through early Friday as trade wind waves continue to gradually subside and result in a more calm sea state. Nearshore windward buoys are observing a 4 to 5 foot trade wind swell that will further decline throughout the remainder of the week as a result of light trades.
A series of northwest and north-northeast swells are due within a couple of days. A tiny 1 to 2 foot, 15 second period northwest (320 degree) swell is being observed at the nearshore CDIP buoys as it moves around the islands early this morning. This swell will level out around 2 feet today and then hang in through Friday. A larger 3 to 6 foot northwest (310-320 degree) medium period swell developing from a pair of lows far northwest of the islands is scheduled to travel through this weekend and peak Sunday. A smaller reinforcing northwest pulse (320 degree) is due Monday and Tuesday.
A small, short to medium period north (010-020 degree) swell will slowly build in today and hold at 4 to 5 feet Friday and Saturday. A very large, powerful storm force low churning off the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast will send an overlapping north-northeast (010-030 degree) swell across the islands late tonight or early Friday, peaking Sunday into Monday and then fading Tuesday.
While none of these swells are expected to produce advisory level surf, the potential for high surf along north and east-facing shores will need to be monitored, especially as combining north northeast swells peak Saturday through Monday.
Fire weather
KBDI values remain high across the state and an overall dry weather pattern is expected for the next several days. With this dry air moving overhead, relative humidity values will have the potential to reach the critical 45% threshold from late morning through the afternoon each day through Sunday. Fortunately, however, weak trade winds will mitigate fire weather concerns through the rest of this week.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov
