The decision had been expected for weeks, if not months. This Sunday, November 17, the United States authorized the Ukrainian army to use its long-range missiles to strike deep into Russian soil. This decision will first have a military impact: by complicating Russian logistics and targeting certain critical installations, the strikes carried out with these weapons will relieve a Ukrainian front which badly needs it.
But it also has an important political dimension, by strengthening Ukraine at a time when possible future negotiations are taking shape. However, for kyiv's position to be less precarious than it currently is, it will need to acquire other assets. How ? And with what chances of success? Overview of the main possibilities.
Make a new incursion into Russian territory? Effective but complicated
A first option could consist of repeating elsewhere an offensive such as that carried out in the Russian oblast of Kursk. Such a maneuver would allow kyiv to assume control of another part of Russian territory, and possibly use it as a bargaining chip to recover part of its own territory.
Although attractive, the option seems difficult to implement. “An offensive operation like Operation Triangle (the name of the offensive in the Kursk oblast), I don’t really believe in it”explains Stéphane Audrand, international risk consultant. And for good reason: “I don't have the impression that the Ukrainian army has many mobile reserves available.”
Furthermore, the colonel and historian Michel Goya notes that “Along the Russian border, the room for maneuver is a little narrower. » In other words: the areas where the Ukrainians could launch an offensive are rare. Even if “localized border crossings” are possible, particularly in the Belgorod sector, a large-scale offensive therefore seems complicated to organize there, especially since the Russians are more on the alert than last August.
Launch a new phase of mobilization? Imaginable but not very convincing
On paper, kyiv can also launch a new phase of mobilization, so as to form new brigades and hope to regain the initiative, on Russian territory or on national soil. But again, in reality, this option is complicated to consider.
Since the start of the conflict, the Ukrainian authorities have in fact been careful not to put too much pressure on its youth (those under 25 cannot be mobilized), so as not to weaken an already hollow age pyramid for these age groups. If they will do everything to optimize their recruitment within the current framework, the Ukrainians should therefore not reconsider its contours. Especially since the hypothesis of an imminent cessation of fighting would make this mobilization even more unpopular than it is.
Continue efforts in the Black Sea? Interesting but deja vu
This need to wage their war with constant means could push the Ukrainians to capitalize on what has worked in the past. Strike in the Black Sea, for example, where the Russian fleet is already largely in decline. “They can hit it,” confirms Michel Goya. And these will be all the easier to carry if they can be carried using long-range American missiles.
Nevertheless, “they may have exhausted their stocks of targets in the region”notes Michel Goya. “The tactical freeze of the Black Sea has been achieved”continues General Olivier Kempf, associate researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research. The Russian navy has in fact left its bases in Crimea and wheat exports via the port of Odessa are no longer threatened. On a purely maritime level, Ukraine therefore no longer has any cards to play.
Continue to hit Russia in the deep? Useful and simple to implement
Another way to capitalize on what works: strike Russian infrastructure in depth. The authorization to carry out these strikes with American equipment, validated by the Biden administration on November 17, goes in this direction. The resilience plan presented this November 19 to the Ukrainian parliament by Volodymyr Zelenksy also has this goal. “Volodymyr Zelensky spoke of developing 3,000 cruise missiles and 30,000 long-range strike drones in 2025”reports Ulrich Bounat.
The Open Diplomacy researcher adds that these in-depth actions can also take place through “you sabotage”. “We know that there are Ukrainian agents in Russia and we can also imagine actions on pipelines that connect Russia to China, for example.”
Hold in Kursk Oblast? Precious but difficult
The Ukrainian army will also have to do everything to preserve the advantage constituted by the pocket formed in the Kursk oblast, around the town of Soudja. Hold these few hundred square kilometers in Russian territory “is a priority”, confirms Michel Goya.
“Even if the pocket is reduced”, see part of Russian territory being occupied by Ukraine is “still a little embarrassing for Putin on a symbolic level”, explains Stéphane Audrand. Beyond the symbol, the territorial exchange currency that constitutes this pocket will have all the more value the larger it is.
Attack Transnistria? Easy but improbable
By observing the maps of the region, observers also imagine another option: an attack against Russian troops stationed in Transnistria, this Moldovan region which borders Ukraine but occupied by the Kremlin.
On a purely military level, Michel Goya judges that the operation would end in victory “relatively easy, because Russian troops are weak in the sector” . “The position of local Russian troops is preposterous,” even confirms Olivier Kempf.
However, this card remains difficult to defeat. “Ukrainians cannot play it alone,” summarizes Olivier Kempf. For this they would obviously need the agreement of Moldova, quite improbable given the local political context, but also that of the West, who would probably take a dim view of this widening of the conflict.
Convince Donald Trump to maintain American aid? To try but not sure
Before entering into negotiations, Ukraine will also have to strive to maintain a high level of support from the West, and in particular from the Americans. Offering enough guarantees to Donald Trump so that he maintains a high level of aid can therefore be important. And it seems almost possible. “Donald Trump is someone who is extremely transactional in international relations”recalls Ulrich Bounat, associate researcher at Open Diplomacy. In other words: if he receives, he can give, even if each help will probably have to be negotiated. And we must also not forget that closing the tap is also possible in the medium term.
Stéphane Audrand adds that the Ukrainians must also lead “diplomatic maneuvers” to ensure the maintenance of European support, which no longer appears obvious in certain countries, notably in Germany.
Hold on to current positions? The subsistence minimum
And, obviously, the Ukrainians will also have to hold out on the rest of the front, if possible by inflicting significant losses on the Kremlin troops. “Their strategy is to hold off and wear down the Russians as much as possible”summarizes Michel Goya.
Use the Russians to tell them that each advance will only be made at the cost of heavy losses, hoping that the level of these will put Vladimir Putin in difficulty. And hold on because future negotiations will be done with the current front line as a reference. A line that the Ukrainians will therefore have to preserve as much as possible.
