the essential
This Tuesday, November 19, Russia signed a decree to authorize the use of nuclear weapons in the event of the use of missiles by kyiv on Russian territory. An unlikely threat according to some observers.
One hundred and ten. This is the number of times Vladimir Putin has brandished the nuclear threat since the start of the invasion in Ukraine. “That’s about once every ten days,” observes Guillaume Ancel, a former officer and war chronicler contacted by La Dépêche du Midi. But beyond words, is this repeated rhetoric a strategic bluff or the prelude to an unprecedented escalation?
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This Tuesday, November 19, the Russian president signed a decree expanding the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons. The move comes a day after the United States decided to allow kyiv to use European ATACMS, Scalp and Storm Shadow long-range missiles to strike targets on Russian territory.
Missiles capable of striking beyond the front
The American decision marks a major change in the dynamics of the conflict. By providing Ukraine not only with long-range weapons, but also with military intelligence support, the United States is expanding the scope of Ukrainian responses beyond the front, aided by NATO member countries. . “The war is now exported to Russian territory,” explains Guillaume Ancel.
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In Moscow, the reaction was not long in coming. Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for Russian diplomacy, immediately denounced “direct participation of the United States and its satellites”, while warning that this decision transformed “the very essence and nature of the conflict”. Already in September, Putin had warned that any assault carried out by a non-nuclear country, but supported by a nuclear power like the United States, could be interpreted as a joint aggression, legitimizing a potential nuclear response.
“It is above all a negotiation card”
But should Russian statements be taken seriously? Guillaume Ancel is skeptical. “The credibility of these threats is absolutely zero,” he says. According to him, nothing on the ground or in information from American services suggests that Putin has initiated an operational procedure to use nuclear weapons. “It is above all a negotiation card”, which he will be able to wave if talks open, perhaps as soon as Donald Trump is inaugurated at the end of January.
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Despite the concern that these threats may cause, Guillaume Ancel believes that such a scenario would be suicide for Putin. A nuclear escalation would not only transform the Ukrainian conflict, it would result in an existential confrontation on a global scale. “If he uses nuclear weapons, he loses the war. We would no longer be in a conflict in Ukraine. We would be in an existential conflict, and all of NATO would be obliged to react,” insists Guillaume Ancel.
