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The Bills are the type of defense that will allow RBs to accumulate receiving stats against them, which is the reason we are on this play.
On the season, the Bills have allowed the most receiving yards and receptions to RBs, on the most targets as well.
Of the 16 RBs the Bills have faced this season, 13 of them have went over on their receptions prop. Many of them have done so with room to spare, including the players highlighted below:
- De'Von Achane, Week 9: eight receptions on a 4.5 o/u
- Zach Charbonnet, Week 8: three receptions on a 1.5 o/u
- Breece Hall, Week 6: five receptions on a 3.5 o/u
- Dare Ogunbowale, Week 5: six receptions on a 1.5 o/u
- Justice Hill, Week 4: six receptions on a 2.5 o/u
- De'Von Achane, Week 2: seven receptions on a 3.5 o/u
Keep in mind this is only showing the astonishing six times when the opposing RB cashed his receptions prop over by more than one reception.
Letting teams throw to the RB is a stylistic choice by the Bills, who allow the ninth-fewest receiving yards to WR and are middle of the pack at defending the tight ends.
So, the guess here is that the Chiefs will take advantage of the open dump-offs to Hunt, hopefully getting him to at least three catches.
Kareem Hunt over 2.5 receptions (-110): 1 Unit
Dawson Knox Anytime TD (+260) bet365
This is a play backing the new Bills starting TE in Dawson Knox due to the injury to Dalton Kincaid, while targeting another juicy matchup. This time, we’re looking at TE props against the Chiefs defense.
We have been on this all season, as the only way teams have been able to have success against this Chiefs defense is by targeting the tight end.
This is by design, as the Chiefs have a stout run defense while also not allowing much receiving work to go to the wide receiver position.
The Chiefs have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game in the league, and they are tied with the Ravens for the fewest yards per carry allowed.
From there, they also allow the fourth-fewest receiving yards specifically to WRs.
That said, they have allowed the most receiving yards and receptions to tight ends, which is where Knox comes into play.
This is the type of play where you cannot look at any of his previous game logs this season, as he had been playing behind Kincaid.
Knox has quietly scored a TD in five of his last seven games played without Kincaid. Granted, this goes back to the 2022 season, so it is not perfect, but it does show how heavily utilized Knox was in the red zone before the Bills drafted Kincaid.
So, sprinkling on an Anytime Touchdown is worth a play, especially when considering the juicy price of +260 odds.
Dawson Knox Anytime Touchdown (+260): 0.50 Units
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