Emirates NBA Cup Predictions After Day One

Last season’s NBA In-Season-Tournament surprisingly took the basketball world by storm; something about the brightly colored courts, the jam-packed slate of games, and the importance of point differential that had players diving for loose balls in the last minutes of the games was a perfect mix to spike the league’s engagement throughout the dark moments of the winter basketball grind. This year, the tournament is rebranded as the Emirates NBA Cup and has come back better than ever. The rules have been cemented, the schedule finalized, and we can now sit back and enjoy the postseason-level basketball in November. So, who is going to take home the first-ever Emirates NBA Cup?

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Emirates NBA Cup Predictions After Day One

Group Play Predictions

East Group A:

1. New York Knicks

2. Orlando Magic

3. Brooklyn Nets

4. Philadelphia 76ers

5. Charlotte Hornets

Despite the Knicks’ struggles to start the season, this is their group to lose. They already dismantled the 76ers in a game where Joel Embiid looked like a shell of his former self, and New York has started to show signs that they are figuring some things out. Also, at 2-9, Philadelphia, the Knicks’ biggest competition in terms of pure talent, has bigger things to worry about than the NBA Cup. Elsewhere in the group, the Orlando Magic have somewhat righted the ship since the injury to Paolo Banchero, fighting their way back to above .500, but, with Banchero out, their lack of a superstar talent should limit them from competing with the elites of the NBA. The Brooklyn Nets have far exceeded most people’s expectations, remaining competitive in every game they have played, but I’m still not ready to trust their array of role players on the big stage. The Charlotte Hornets, the team I am picking last in this group, have been fun to watch with the resurgence of LaMelo Ball, but they are still too young and too inexperienced. Jalen Brunson and the Knicks should coast to first place in this group, being the first team to punch their ticket to the knockout round.

East Group B:

1. Indiana Pacers

2. Milwaukee Bucks

3. Miami Heat

4. Detroit Pistons

5. Toronto Raptors

The Indiana Pacers are why this tournament was so successful last year; they were an extremely exciting team to watch, got hot at the right time, and made a run to the finals. This year, I’m expecting them to do something similar, especially in a weaker group. Their biggest competition is likely the Milwaukee Bucks, who have been one of the most disappointing teams to start the season, and their lack of fluidity on both ends of the floor will continue to limit their ability to win big games. Next would be the Miami Heat, who lack purpose when they play, and even when they have spectacular individual performances, like Tyler Herro‘s 40-point night, something seems to always hold them back. Detroit and Toronto both have some young and exciting pieces to watch, like Cade Cunningham and Gradey Dick, but they are still a couple of years away from competing with the best teams in the league. The reigning runner-ups will move on.

East Group C:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers

2. Boston Celtics (Advance via Wildcard)

3. Atlanta Hawks

4. Chicago Bulls

5. Washington Wizards

This group has the two best teams in the East right now and possibly the two best in the NBA. Cleveland is undefeated through 13 games, and Boston is still the reigning NBA champions. This is all to say that this group is a two-man race, despite the Celtics’ loss to the Hawks on the opening night of the Emirates NBA Cup. The Washington Wizards simply lack the talent and are rolling out a roster centered around their rookies. The Chicago Bulls have been feisty at times this season, but seem like a team trending towards a fire sale at the trade deadline. The Hawks have shown some flashes this season, mainly when they roll out lineups characterized by depth and defensive ability, but are adept at losing a stupid game every now and then. The Cavaliers and Celtics will both finish 3-1 and rack up the point differential against the bottom of their group, both moving on to the knockout round.

West Group A:

1. Sacramento Kings

2. Houston Rockets

3. Minnesota Timberwolves

4. Los Angeles Clippers

5. Portland Trail Blazers

While I would have picked Minnesota to finish atop this group a couple of days ago, back-to-back losses to Portland may be reason for concern. They have now lost three straight games, and their lack of depth has become apparent. Sacramento, on the other hand, has won seven out of their last ten games and is getting vital contributions from all eight guys in their rotation. Houston is another team that has found its stride, winning five of its last six games, and has seven guys averaging double-digit points. This contrast of depth will see the Timberwolves’ struggles continue while the Kings and Rockets finish atop the group. At the bottom, the Trail Blazers won’t win another game in the Emirates NBA Cup, and the Clippers lack some of the offensive firepower needed in these big games.

West Group B:

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

2. Los Angeles Lakers (Advance via Wildcard)

3. San Antonio Spurs

4. Phoenix Suns

5. Utah Jazz

Despite Chet Holmgren’s injury, the Thunder are too deep and too talented not to finish atop their group. The debut of Isaiah Hartenstein should provide reinforcements near the later stages of group play, but Oklahoma City’s plethora of lockdown defenders surrounding Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will allow them to cruise to the top of the group. My wildcard team in the West is the Los Angeles Lakers, who, as reigning champions, will be comfortable in the Emirates NBA Cup environment. In the weakest Western group, the Lakers should be able to reach three wins and prepare for another deep run in December. The three other teams in this group all have glaring issues. While the Phoenix Suns have been excellent to start the season, the uncertainty surrounding Kevin Durant will limit them in the short term, as they have bigger aspirations than the NBA Cup. Victor Wembanyama has started to percolate for the San Antonio Spurs, but the rest of the team is still too underwhelming to trust moving forward. That leaves the Jazz, who are already in tank mode and have no real motivation to win.

West Group C:

1. Golden State Warriors

2. Denver Nuggets

3. Dallas Mavericks

4. Memphis Grizzlies

5. New Orleans Pelicans

Group C in the West may be what some people call the group of death. All five teams in this group are playoff contenders and will be desperate to stack wins in any way that they can. Finishing first, I have the Golden State Warriors, mainly because of their win over the Dallas Mavericks and proven defensive ability. Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and the rest of their 12-man rotation are playing a beautiful style of basketball right now, and they have shown no signs of slowing down. Their biggest competition will be the Denver Nuggets, who have won five straight games after a rocky start to the year. Nikola Jokic is averaging nearly a 30-point triple-double, and Russell Westbrook’s improved play has done wonders for this Nuggets team. Finishing third, I have the Dallas Mavericks, who have struggled to find their identity early on in the season and seem to be a team that will be more scary in April. The bottom two are the Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans, who are both currently dealing with an array of injuries and will be just trying to get healthy.

Knockout Round Predictions: Quarterfinals

New York Knicks defeat the Boston Celtics

I still believe the Knicks are a top-three team in the Eastern Conference, and this would be a great opportunity to send a message to the Celtics. Tom Thibodeau won’t hesitate to play his starters 42 minutes in this one, and I think the Knicks would be motivated to get revenge for the beatdown Boston gave them on opening night.

Cleveland Cavaliers defeat the Indiana Pacers

The Cavaliers are undefeated, and it would be stupid to bet them to lose. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are playing like one of the best backcourts in the NBA right now, and their soundness on both sides of the ball would see them prevail over the volatile Pacers.

Oklahoma City Thunder defeat the Los Angeles Lakers

The big question in this one would be whether or not Isaiah Hartenstein is playing. If he is, the Thunder are too young, too talented, and too energetic at all positions on the floor for the fragile Lakers to stand a chance.

Sacramento Kings defeat the Golden State Warriors

I think at this point in the Emirates NBA Cup, the Warriors will have had enough. When you already have four real rings, it’s hard to motivate yourself to contend for what, in many ways, is a made-up trophy. The Kings, on the other hand, are hungry to win whatever they can, and their commitment level would be too much for the aging Warriors.

Knockout Round Predictions: Semifinals

Cleveland Cavaliers defeat the New York Knicks

This would be an electric Eastern Final, possibly a sneak peek at a future matchup in the playoffs, between two teams that would definitely be playing to win. At the end of the day, the Knicks will still be without quality big-man play other than Karl-Anthony Towns, and the Cavaliers’ depth will be too much for the Knicks to handle.

Sacramento Kings Defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Kings are my Emirates NBA Cup Cinderella team. Much like the Pacers of last year, the Kings have a prolific offense and can get red hot at any moment. Also, for a team that has such little existing history, the NBA Cup would provide the Kings with an opportunity to write their names into the history books as well as announce themselves as championship contenders. The Thunder, conversely, might fall victim to the moment and let Sacramento’s energy engulf them.

Knockout Round Predictions: Finals

Cleveland Cavaliers Defeat Sacramento Kings

Also, much like the Pacers, the Kings’ run will fall short in the Emirates NBA Cup finals. The Cavaliers are playing at too high of a level to bet against them right now and have no reason to take this game easy. They have a ten-man rotation of impact players, and this depth will push them over the edge.  This win would give the new era of Cleveland basketball their first trophy, and anoint them as one of the Celtic’s biggest threats to the throne.

The Emirates NBA Cup will continue to grow in popularity amongst fans, and this year, the games may actually matter. Each Tuesday and Friday for the foreseeable future there will be can’t-miss NBA Cup group play action, so make sure your calendars are cleared for the next month.

Main Image: Soobum Im-Imagn Images