The Swiss national team can still make it into the Nations League. But this undertaking is a tough one.
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- With two games to go, Switzerland are in the relegation zone of the Nations League group.
- A win against Serbia on Friday evening is a must if the national team wants to stay in the league.
- In any case, there is no chance of the national team finishing higher than third place. Switzerland could face opponents such as England or Austria in the relegation play-off.
The Swiss national team is up to its neck in the Nations League. Four of the six games have been played, and Murat Yakin’s squad is sitting in the bottom of the table with just one point.
Relegation to Group B of the Nations League is imminent. The Nati are three points off third place with two games to go. This difference must be made up on Friday evening in the direct duel against Serbia – and even more. The fact is: Switzerland must win against Serbia if they are to avoid relegation at all. Here are the possible scenarios:
Relegation is possible even with two wins
According to UEFA regulations, in the event of a tie on points, the direct matches between the teams with the same number of points are decisive in the first instance. Denmark currently have seven points and Serbia four. If the national team wins against Spain and Serbia and Denmark loses against Spain and Serbia, there will be three teams with seven points.
In this three-way battle with Denmark and Serbia, the Nati would lose out. With four points from the direct encounters, Switzerland would have fewer points than Denmark (seven points) and Serbia (six points).
Switzerland misses out on victory against Serbia
With less than three points from the direct duel against Serbia, who are currently in third place, relegation to League B is a fact. The match against European champions Spain degenerates into a mere test match.
Switzerland wins against Serbia
After a win on Friday evening, Switzerland would be level on points with Serbia. However, a win with a one-goal difference would still leave Switzerland behind Serbia. In order to overtake the Serbs in the table before the last game, the national team must win by at least two goals.
2:0 win against Serbia
In the event of a 2:0 victory over Serbia, the Nati will be in third place before the final matchday, in which case Monday evening’s games will be decisive. Switzerland avoids relegation in these scenarios:
– Switzerland pick up more points than Serbia in their final game.
– Switzerland and Serbia win, Denmark earns at least one point against Spain on Friday and Switzerland wins against Spain with the same or better goal difference than Serbia against Denmark.
– Serbia and Switzerland play to a draw in their last matches. The Serbs score a maximum of two goals more than Switzerland.
– Switzerland loses against Spain and Serbia loses against Denmark with the same or better goal difference.
1:0 win against Serbia
Assuming Switzerland beats Serbia 1:0, they will have to score more points than the Eastern Europeans in their final match.
A resounding win against Serbia
If Switzerland beat Serbia by three goals or more, Serbia will have to score more points than Switzerland in the final game to snatch third place from them – or, if they score the same number of points, they will have to achieve a better goal difference.
What 3rd place means for the national team
For the Nati, third place is the maximum – more is no longer possible. This means that they have not yet secured their place in the league. Switzerland would have to play a second-placed team from League B in the relegation play-off. And these opponents are tough: as things stand, they are Georgia, Greece, Norway and Wales. However, it is also possible that the opponents could be England, Turkey, the Czech Republic, Albania or Slovenia.
Rules for ranking in the Nations League
- points
- Direct comparison: points, goal difference, goals scored, away goals
- If direct comparison is not decisive: total goal difference
- Number of goals scored
- Away goals
- Number of wins
- Number of away wins
- Fair play rating
- UEFA coefficient ranking