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Best NBA Bets Today
John Collins over 16.5 points vs. Mavericks (-120)
FanDuel, 4:15 PM CT
Alex Barutha: I’m going back to the well. I cashed on Collins over 15.5 points against the Suns on Tuesday, as he had 29 points across 34 minutes in starting center Walker Kessler’s absence. Kessler is out again tonight, and I don’t think Collins’ 29 points were a massive outlier. In 183 total minutes with Kessler off the court, Collins is averaging 27.4 points per 36 minutes — boasting the highest usage rate on the team in that situation (29.6 USG%). Dallas has stronger defenders at center in Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively compared to Phoenix, but I still believe we’re getting value at this number.
Naji Marshall over 1.5 steals (+188) at Utah
BetRivers, 4:27 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Opponents block the most shots (7.1) and swipe the most steals (10.5) against Utah on a per-48-minute basis. I don’t like trying to guess which of Daniel Gafford or Dereck Lively will have a better game at center, so I’m focusing on the steals side. Marshall is a relatively anonymous player, but he’s getting increased minutes while PJ Washington is sidelined. Marshall has an excellent 2.0 STL%, translating to 1.6 steals per 36 minutes. Over his past seven appearances, he’s averaged 1.0 steals in 26.4 minutes. At nearly 2-to-1 odds in this matchup, I like him to exceed his recent average.
