abortion, a lever that has become ineffective for the Democrats

Campaign materials in favor of abortion rights, in Orlando, Florida, October 6, 2024. OCTAVIO JONES / AFP

The decision of the Supreme Court remodeled by Donald Trump during his mandate, in June 2022, to reverse the federal right to abortion had created an explosion in the United States where it enjoyed the support of a strong majority of Americans. The anger aroused by this decision largely explained the resilience of the Democratic Party during the following mid-term elections, traditionally devastating for the party which occupies the White House.

Democrats subsequently achieved notable successes in Republican strongholds, such as Ohio and Kentucky, during referendums aimed at protecting women's right to control their own bodies. Kamala Harris, who campaigned on this theme throughout the country after the publication of the Supreme Court ruling, therefore placed this fight at the heart of her presidential campaign. On October 26, she was joined in Kalamazoo, Michigan, by former First Lady Michelle Obama, who made a vibrant plea for reproductive rights.

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The results of the elections of November 5, during which ten referendums were organized on the subject of abortion, showed that the subject remained at the heart of the concerns of a majority of voters, but that it no longer functioned as a spring effective for Democratic candidates also present on the ballot. Two Republican strongholds thus adopted measures protecting abortion while also providing massive support to Donald Trump in the presidential election: Missouri and Montana, with more than 58% of the vote. Arizona, still being counted, could be added to this list.

Three setbacks in Republican strongholds

Three states won by Kamala Harris (New York, Maryland, Colorado) and a fourth, won in the four previous presidential elections by Democrats, Nevada, won this year by Donald Trump, have also logically protected abortion.

The three setbacks occurred in Republican strongholds. First of all, it is South Dakota, won with 63% of the votes by the former businessman. Abortion advocates failed in Florida only because the percentage of those voters who supported it (57%) remained below the threshold (60%) required for any constitutional amendment in a state won with a margin of change. comparable margin (56%) by the Republican. It was a question of returning to the six-week limit in force since the 1is May.

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