The Republican's return to the White House risks profoundly changing the place of the United States in the world. Which raises fears of economic tensions with other great powers, starting with China.
With the return of Donald Trump to the White House, the world is preparing to experience new turbulence. Isolationist and unpredictable, the president-elect intends to turn the page on Joe Biden, who has tried over the past four years to restore the image of the United States in the world.
• Towards the end of military support for Ukraine?
The Republican's victory Wednesday over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris will likely have the most immediate repercussions in Ukraine, where Donald Trump has promised to quickly end the war, “in 24 hours,” by forcing kyiv to make concessions to the Russian invaders. The 78-year-old tycoon believes that “this war should never have taken place” and he praises his “very good relationship” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he will undoubtedly seek to meet face-to-face once took office on January 20.
Donald Trump has never given details of his intentions, but he has never publicly wished kyiv “victory”. And he is accused of having admiration for Vladimir Putin. According to Western media, his plan would be largely favorable to Russia. This would involve demilitarizing the area currently occupied by Moscow (i.e. 20% of Ukrainian territory) without kyiv regaining control. And Ukraine will have to give up joining NATO, as the Kremlin wants.
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Furthermore, European allies fear a slowdown, or even a cessation, of American military support for Ukraine. Donald Trump has repeatedly denounced the billions spent by his country to help kyiv. The country has already tasted Republican reluctance. For months in late 2023 – early 2024, Trump supporters blocked U.S. military assistance, forcing Ukrainian forces to ration shells and allowing Russia to push its advantage.
• The promise of an increase in taxes on imports
The American billionaire's first term between 2017 and 2021 had already borne the mark of punitive customs duties. The Republican wants to raise them to between 10 and 20% for all products entering the United States, and up to 60% for those coming from China or even 200% for certain types of goods.
The stated objective is to increase tax revenues and to use customs duties as a negotiating weapon against countries which, like China, “are tearing us apart”, Donald Trump repeated during his campaign, while encouraging companies to relocate their production to the United States.
According to the director of the Center for Prospective Studies and International Information (CEPII) Antoine Bouët, Europe would also suffer from such an increase in American customs duties, Germany being more exposed than France to the American market . No sector of activity would be spared, from aeronautics to wines and spirits and luxury.
• An exit from the Paris agreement on the table
During his first term, Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 Paris climate agreement. He will be able to start again as soon as he enters the White House on January 20, which will make the withdrawal effective one year later. After the first effective withdrawal only in November 2020 for procedural reasons, Joe Biden rejoined the agreement in January 2021.
However, it is within the framework of this agreement that the United States committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by half by 2030, compared to 2005. In 2023, this reduction was at 18%, according to the Rhodium Group research center. For all experts, this objective will move away with the victory of Donald Trump. With an impact on global warming. And for good reason, the Republican promised during his campaign to “drill at all costs” and openly questioned the reality of climate change, contrary to the energy transition policy initiated by his predecessor Joe Biden.
“We have more liquid gold than any country in the world. More than Saudi Arabia or Russia,” the tycoon said in his victory speech, referring to oil and gas.
• Less participation in NATO
The prospect of Donald Trump's return to the White House has haunted the corridors of NATO for months. His thunderous declarations against the European countries of the Alliance, guilty in his eyes of not financing their defense enough, are still in everyone's memory. At the start of the year, he threatened, if elected, to no longer defend NATO countries which do not respect their commitment to contribute to the alliance's budget. Last February, the American billionaire's position was summed up as follows: if you don't pay more, manage in the face of the Russian threat.
The organization's secretary general Mark Rutte, who encountered Donald Trump on several occasions during his first term, has, however, made many reassuring remarks since his arrival at the head of the Alliance at the beginning of October. When the Republican takes office on January 20, “he will find a stronger, more united and more important Alliance”, assured the Dutchman on Wednesday.
NATO claims to have partly responded to the challenges launched by Donald Trump. She has taken over the coordination of military aid to Ukraine, until then in the hands of the Americans, and, above all, she regularly highlights the budgetary efforts of European countries, accused by the billionaire of being “bad payers”. “. Twenty-three of the 32 countries in this organization now devote 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) to their military spending when there were only a handful ten years ago.
• Towards increased tensions with China?
Donald Trump re-elected, China can expect four years of customs surcharges, tensions and verbal jousting but its reputation as a negotiator could work in Beijing's favor. Before announcing his re-election, China had indicated that it wanted “peaceful coexistence” with the United States – regardless of who won the election. In accordance with its habits, Beijing, however, did not wish to dwell on how a victory for the Republican tycoon could affect bilateral ties.
Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris campaigned promising to put pressure on China. The Republican tycoon had upped the ante, promising to impose customs duties of 60% on all Chinese products entering the United States. This proposal could hit $500 billion worth of imported Chinese goods, PineBridge Investments calculated. A scenario that would bring back bad memories in Beijing. During his first term (2017-2021), Donald Trump launched a fierce trade war against the Asian giant, imposing huge customs duties on Chinese products.
With the Chinese economy currently experiencing some of its worst growth in years, China probably does not want additional tensions with the United States, its largest trading partner. This figure of 60% could, however, be a simple tactic on the part of a man who has always praised his qualities as a negotiator. The tycoon regularly presents himself as an outstanding negotiator with unique contact with certain foreign leaders, particularly from authoritarian countries. In October, he praised his “very strong relationship” with Chinese President Xi Jinping and affirmed that he would be able to dissuade him from launching a military operation against Taiwan… by imposing customs duties of 150%.
