As of: November 6th, 2024 9:55 p.m
The pollsters were wrong again: it became clear surprisingly quickly that Trump would become US President again. He was able to score points with voters with his issues, but his rival Harris’ strategy didn’t work.
The day after, Americans are still amazed that that night turned out so differently than they expected. This has something to do with the pollsters, who always talked about a close race and put everyone on the wrong track.
How could there be such a clear result so quickly?
In fact, like in 2016 and 2020, they failed to accurately assess the enthusiasm of Trump supporters. This has something to do with Trump supporters distrusting the media and pollsters and not taking part in polls. Every time, the polls have underestimated the response, and this time too.
In absolute numbers, fewer people voted for Trump than in 2020. But he managed to get his people moving better than Harris, especially in the battleground states like Pennsylvania and Georgia.
And then the election officials obviously did a good job and, in contrast to 2020, counted very quickly and very effectively and, above all, without any problems.
What did the Democrats do wrong?
Joe Biden mobilized many more voters four years ago than Kamala Harris did this year. Biden won over 80 million votes, Harris – as of now – just 66 million. Would it therefore have been better if Joe Biden had run? Hardly. It would have been difficult to get voters excited about him, not after the bad television duel with Donald Trump.
However, Joe Biden withdrew too late, which is why Harris had little time to make himself known. And there wasn’t enough time to look for alternatives. Donald Trump and the Republicans were able to easily link Harris to the unpopular Biden. Their attempt to present themselves as a force for change was therefore bound to fail.
Could Harris also have been relying on the wrong messages? She managed to mobilize many women, but excluded many men in the process. The topic of democracy was a double-edged sword and perhaps too abstract for many people.
In the end, as is often the case, it was about people’s economic situation. And many people had more faith in Donald Trump because they considered him to be a successful businessman.
What did Donald Trump do right?
Trump has clearly affected many people’s attitude to life. His bleak image clearly resonated with many: of a country in decline, flooded with migrants and no longer in control of its borders, in which people can no longer provide for their families and pay for basic necessities.
And the recipes he presented too: close borders, deport people without a residence permit, seal off your own economy with tariffs, stay out of conflicts elsewhere in the world.
He obviously nailed the pitch too. His blatant choice of words towards political opponents, his insults, his exaggeration, his exclusion are perceived as liberation, at least by the hard core of his supporters. Many others have ignored this. Trump is certainly not a good person, but he makes the right policies, that was often heard during the election campaign.
Who were Trump’s supporters?
This election result is a catastrophe for the Democrats. They were so sure that demographic change in the USA would ensure them political majorities for decades to come. They were hoping for young immigrants, high-earning city dwellers and well-educated women.
Things turned out differently. Men in particular, including many African Americans, clearly felt that the Democrats had nothing to offer them. Immigrants from Latin America have not remained loyal to the Democrats either. Like everyone else, they look at their economic situation and then consider Donald Trump to be more competent.
What can we expect in Germany and Europe?
The rest of the world would do well to take Donald Trump literally. He remains an impulse politician who allows himself to be controlled by his own inclinations and whims. But he knows how to do it now. And he has enough loyalists around him to implement what he promised during the election campaign.
This certainly includes the tariffs that he has already threatened against China and Europe and which could lead to a real trade war. He has also made it clear that he has no interest in continuing to support Ukraine with military aid. And he has promised that he wants to end the war before taking office. He didn’t say how, but it can be assumed that Ukraine will come off worse than Russia.
It is unlikely that he will allow the USA to leave NATO. He also failed to carry out his announced troop withdrawal from Europe four years ago. But he will leave the Europeans to fend for themselves.
