The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | November 8 – 10, 2024
Week 45 | November 8 – 10, 2024
Top 10 3-Day Range | Weekend 45, 2024: $45M — $65M
1. Venom: The Last Dance
Sony Pictures | Week 3
Weekend Range: $12M – $16M
Pros
After a disappointing start, Venom: The Last Dance held strong in its second frame, delivering $25.9M for a -49% drop. That’s the best second frame hold of the Venom trilogy, and we expect it to hold even stronger this outing with little direct competition. Domestic cume is currently at $91.9M, so expect this title to pass the century mark stateside before Sunday.
Cons
Dwayne Johnson’s big budget Red One will get the jump on Venom the frame after this, with Gladiator II likely demolishing the box office the week after. Hence, this will be the last frame for Sony’s superhero flick to make those dollars and hold the top spot. Even though it will pass $100M domestic, international is doing the heavy lifting here with more than 2/3’s of the $318.8M WW cume.
2. Heretic
A24 | NEW
Weekend Range: $8M – $12M
Pros
Like Civil War earlier this year, A24 is gifting Heretic with a wide release. That sign of confidence in the title is backed up with a 93% critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, which will only spurn more interest in this original film. Civil War wound up being A24’s second-highest grosser ever at $68.7M, and Heretic arguably has similar breakout potential… to the point that a massive enough drop for Venom could see this one slip neatly into the top spot. The horror genre at large has been going through an interesting transition this year, with the usual purveyors like Blumhouse, New Line, and Lionsgate flailing while outliers like Neon’s Longlegs and Cineverse’s Terrifier 3 ruled the roost. Heretic has exactly the kind of fresh vibe fans are looking for.
Cons
The idea of subverting a leading man into a psycho worked wonders with Nicolas Cage in Longlegs. While Heretic star Hugh Grant was a major draw in the 90’s and early aughts, as of late he has been largely relegated to supporting roles in blockbusters like Wonka and Dungeons & Dragons. His last big “name above the title” co-lead role was opposite Meryl Streep in 2016’s Florence Foster Jenkinswhich was a modest $56M global success story. Talented writer/directors Scott Beck and Bryan Woods originated the script for Paramount’s A Quiet Place franchise (still going strong as Day One is the #1 horror title of 2024), but their big sci-fi directorial effort 65 sputtered out last year with $56.2M WW. Luckily Heretic has been received much better since debuting at this year’s Toronto International Film Festival. It was released onto 610 screens in the UK over Halloween weekend but only managed to place #3 with $1.9M.
3. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever
Lionsgate | NEW
Weekend Range: $8M – $12M
Pros
Based on Barbara Robinson’s classic 1972 children’s book, The Best Christmas Pageant Ever is a faith-based movie with big crossover potential thanks to mainstream stars Judy Greer, Pete Holmes, and Lauren Graham. The director is Dallas Jenkins, the filmmaker and creative force behind the hugely successful Christian show The Chosenwhose fourth season generated over $31.6M in box office over the course of three Fathom releases in early 2024. Another plus is the production entity is Kingdom Story Company, whose 2024 releases Unsung Hero and Ordinary Angels both performed in the $20M arena. The current Rotten Tomatoes critical is at 92%, with many positive notices from mainstream publications.
Cons
Lionsgate’s poor 2024 box office track record speaks for itself, and even if The Best Christmas Pageant Ever performs on-par with the studio’s distribution on Unsung Hero and Ordinary Angels it will not be enough to turn around the studio’s difficult year. Releasing a Christmas movie before Thanksgiving is always a tricky proposition. Add to that Lionsgate’s recent unsuccessful release of Kingdom Story Company’s White Bird and this one might not deliver the crossover audience it needs. IFC’s PG-13 rated Christmas Eve in Miller’s Point may siphon off holiday-prone audiences in urban venues this frame, while MGM’s star-studded Dwayne Johnson tentpole Red One will monopolize that audience next weekend.
