Donald Trump will become president of the United States for the second time next January. He learned from his first mandate, and risks pursuing more radical and even more destructive policies for the environment and the rights of minorities, explains Romain Huret, historian specializing in the United States at theEHESS.
Reporterre — Is this re-election of Donald Trump a surprise? ?
Romain Huret — For me, no. I have been saying for a long time, since 2016, that Trumpism must be taken seriously. Even if it is very difficult to understand it and to understand the choice of the Americans. It is a movement which has very ancient roots in the history of the United States, and which has consolidated and crystallized in connection with more recent developments in American society. The crisis of the middle class, the rise in inequalities, the consequences of globalization have been a more recent accelerator. All this allowed this new victory for Donald Trump.
What does this election say about American democracy? ?
The election went rather well. I speak subject to further developments, but there were fears of apocalyptic scenarios of fraud, attacks on polling stations, etc. We can rejoice in the fact that the ordinary functioning of democracy went well, whatever the outcome. I found it very interesting the way in which the media recalled these electoral procedures, the importance of the assessors, to avoid any conspiratorial discourse. This is the first point.
The second point is that the re-election of Donald Trump shows the social and political crisis this country is going through. It is the answer, for some Americans, to this social and political crisis. Many see him as a savior. They think he's going to get them out of what I see as a middle-class crisis that's taking root in the country and that hasn't found an answer with Joe Biden.
What environmental consequences can we anticipate with this re-election? ?
They are very worrying. Trump is a climate skeptic, he will have climate skeptics around him. Climate skeptic rhetoric will become commonplace, as he already does in his speech by believing that global warming is an invention of scientists lacking notoriety. We can undoubtedly estimate that the United States will exit all environmental agreements, that the intensive exploitation of raw materials will accelerate in the United States, that the fracking [fracturation hydraulique] will resume with a vengeance, as during his first term. We can also fear that the share of public research and public funding devoted to the environmental issue, which is significant in the United States, will experience real difficulties in the years to come.
This theme will no longer be a priority, as it is today, in the major research funding agencies, notably the National Science Foundation, which places a lot of emphasis on research programs on the environment and climate. There is a good chance that this public funding will stop. So, this is really bad news for the climate and environment on Earth.
Donald Trump has already been in power, what does this suggest for this second term? ?
He has experience of power. We observe that he thought more about the concrete dimension of the exercise of power. How to implement stronger policies more quickly. We can sense a greater radicalness of the measures that will be taken. If we take it seriously, we observe that in domestic politics, there are recurring elements. He has clearly said he wants to restore tariffs and make them the pillar of tax policy in the United States, as it was 250 years ago. This is a major choice in terms of tax policy, partly unfair, since the working classes also pay.
He also announced a major law on immigration with much more precise and worrying measures than could be the famous wall of 2016 that he wanted to build to prevent migrants from arriving. He has a whole plan for mass expulsions of illegal migrants with the requisition of law enforcement, placement in camps, then their expulsion.
« He has a whole plan for mass expulsions of migrants »
A third point announced is a massive reduction in the role of the State. A mission that he will entrust to Elon Musk [entrepreneur milliardaire]. This would be a disaster since we know that the Environmental Agency in the United States plays an important role in the management of natural parks, for example.
Finally, Trump has the ambition to attack jurisprudence dating back to the 1960s in matters of minority rights. We can quite imagine that he has perfectly matured his plan to appoint judges to the Supreme Court – but to other courts as well – to limit, or even reverse, what has long been a strong trend in state law. -United: protection of sexual, ethnic, etc. minorities. We have already seen it with abortion, but homosexual marriage, the rights of trans people, etc., all these measures risk being in the sights of the judges who Trump will not fail to appoint as soon as the opportunity arises. will be given.
He wants to attack what he calls deep statecet « Deep State » who slowed down his reforms in his first term, who prevented him from transforming America and returning it to that stateless golden age.
Since Donald Trump's last mandate, the international context has evolved. Is he more favorable to him ?
Donald Trump's capacity for action is colossal. He will have to very quickly decide the question of aid to Ukraine. He made it clear that he wanted this aid to stop. He also made it very clear that he was supportive of Israel. It has a much greater power of harm than in 2016 due to the multiplication of conflict zones in the world.
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