In fact, all experts agree that Donald Trump should give a new boost to the financial markets. “The extension of the tax cuts granted by Trump in 2017 is assured. It is likely that statutory and effective corporate tax rates will be lowered (the former to perhaps 15%) and that sweeping changes will be made to business regulation.believes Franklin Templeton. Enough to satisfy all sectors, including industrial and service sectors in a context already favorable to the American economy in view of the latest macro statistics.
American growth thus remains solid at the start of Q4, according to the American ISM services which increased further in October to reach a 2-year high of 56 points. “ This is reassuring given the political uncertainties. But the good news goes beyond the United States, as shown by the economic surprises in the euro zone and China, which became positive again at the beginning of November for the first time since spring. », explains La Banque Postale AM.
The bond market is less celebrating. Investors are reacting to the likelihood that tax cuts will not be accompanied by significant spending restraint and, in turn, stronger growth. “ But be careful: the protectionist approach, « America First »could lead to an increase in inflation, while customs tariffs would increase production costs. If Europe hoped for appeasement, it could find itself confronted with more direct and demanding American diplomacy », warns Mirabaud.
Another downside, the risks linked to the new president's foreign policy but also his migration policy. “ The restrictions planned by Donald Trump raise the risk of labor shortages in many sectors. And who says labor shortage, says inflation linked to rising wages and compression, ultimately, of company margins », adds Maxime Dupuis. Knowing that both pet peeves » pointed out by candidate Trump during his campaign are Mexico and… Europe, in particular Germany, due to a strong imbalance in the trade balance with these countries. “ Be careful, therefore, of the backlash on the markets after an initial positive reaction, ultimately quite technical. »
In the meantime, experts have already identified the sectors and stocks likely to benefit from this election. “ The biggest winners will be sectors and industries welcoming a more business-friendly regulatory environment, including fossil fuel companies, financial services and smaller-cap companies. Fears of prescription drug price caps will fade, benefiting the pharmaceutical sector », Anticipates Franklin Templeton. Among the values: TotalEnergies, Repsol, Rio Tinto, Vallourec, Technip, Aegon, Zurich Insurance, Publicis, Ahold, Delhaize, Deutsche TeleKom, Sodexo, as mentioned by Oddo BHF.
