With Donald Trump set to return to the White House, the international outlook is in for a major shake-up. Perhaps even a wild ride.
The most dramatic change would be regarding the war in Ukraine. The only way that Ukraine has been able to hold off Russia’s push towards Kyiv has been due to the huge financial support of NATO.
While Ukraine is not a member of NATO, the support of this alliance has allowed it to match a much larger and better-resourced army.
The US is the biggest funder of NATO, and Trump has made clear his disregard for the alliance. He believes the US has for too long carried many countries in NATO that have not paid their fair share.
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Added to Trump’s antipathy to NATO is his mysterious relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump appears to have a closer relationship with Putin than he admits. He will not say whether he has had contact with Putin over the past year.
This becomes important when it comes to Ukraine. Trump declared on CNN in May 2023 that he could end the Ukraine war “in 24 hours”.
“They’re dying, Russians and Ukrainians,” Trump said. “I want them to stop dying. And I’ll have that done — I’ll have that done in 24 hours.”
Pushed on that, Trump said he would meet Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
From my trips to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, it’s been clear that both Ukraine’s leadership and public have been fixated on this US presidential election.
There is a strong sense in Ukraine that to end the war in 24 hours, or at least quickly, Trump would get both leaders together and tell them that they needed to put down their guns and walk away with what they currently have — which would be disastrous for Ukraine.
On that scenario, overnight Ukraine’s territory would shrink by 20 per cent, which is what Russia has already taken. This in turn would most likely lead to enormous divisions and recriminations inside Ukraine — people would be angry that they lost thousands of people fighting a war which a US president then rewarded Russia for beginning, by gifting to them one-fifth of Ukraine.
Many would blame Zelenskyy for not having delivered victory. And many would blame the West — particularly the US — for not allowing Ukraine to attack inside Russia and not providing Ukraine what it most needed, particularly fighter jets such as F-16s.
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Changes with China that would send shock waves globally
The second major likely change in international affairs regards China. Kamala Harris would most likely have continued a more predictable approach to China — strategic competition, economic competition but an attempt to keep conflict at the lowest level possible.
But Trump is likely to be much different. He’s made clear during the campaign that he sees China as the biggest threat to US economic prosperity.
He’s signalled that he intends to try to stem the flood of Chinese goods into the US by imposing large tariffs on Chinese goods. He’s suggested the tariffs on China could be as high as 60 per cent.
That would cause major convulsions to world trade. A new and bruising trade war between the US and China would not just damage both countries but damage confidence around the world.
Australia would not be hit as badly as many countries. Whatever Trump’s unpredictability, he and much of the senior US political leadership regard Australia as a loyal ally.
During Trump’s first presidency, Australia managed to navigate Trump’s tariff push, with Australian aluminium and steel being largely exempted. Credit for this goes in large part to then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.
Trump will be more supportive of Israel
And finally, the Middle East. Kamala Harris would have been tougher on Israel than Trump will be. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently visited Washington — during a meeting Harris made clear she was unhappy with the number of civilians being killed by Israel in Gaza.
In contrast, Trump has made clear on several occasions that Israel should be allowed to “finish the job”.
Few people seem to know what exactly that means.
But what is clear is that Trump would be much more supportive of Israel than Harris would have been.
“Wild” is one of Donald Trump’s favourite words.
The world can now brace for what may be a wild ride.
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