On the electoral success of Donald Trump on an unsuspected scale, the view of the Montpellier academic William Genieys, research director at the CNRS stationed at SciencesPo Paris, political scientist and sociologist specializing in American society.
“As in 2016, we did not expect such a quick victory from Donald Trump”confided to us at the start of the morning of this Wednesday, November 6, the Montpellier academic William Genieys, research director at the CNRS stationed at SciencesPo Paris, political scientist and sociologist specializing in American society.
Full powers for two years
Still blown away, not only by the speed with which any suspense was blown away, but also “by the scale of his success: he won all the key states and also, apparently, the popular vote, which he had not managed to do against Hillary Clinton. But he also has the majority in the Senate now, and the House of Representatives can remain with the Republicans If we add to this the Supreme Court, where six out of nine judges are Republican – and Trump will have the possibility of appointing new ones during his mandate – this means that he has the full capacity. powers until the mid-term elections in two years”.
“Strong emotional capital”
A triumph that William Genieys explains of course by “the extremely powerful power of electoral attraction that Donald Trump is developing. Who combines both strong emotional capital, which sometimes flirts with the irrational, and great credit in economic matters. Through his personal success, even if he has also experienced failures in this area, but also with the rather good results of his first mandate during which, thanks in particular to his protectionism, the American economy took off again before being damaged by Covid.
“Citizen Kane in the service of a populist!”
But according to the Montpellier resident, another factor greatly contributed to his unchallenged victory: “In 2016, he massively used the Fox News channel and Twitter. There, he was able to rely even more on of a populist! Finally, he used what can be considered the last stage of political communication: artificial intelligence and fake news..
Did Kamala Harris miss a primary?
But to begin to try to understand this unexpected success, we must obviously also look at the failure of Kamala Harris and the Democrats. Willian Genieys first notes that Kamala Harris, due to exceptional circumstances, did not participate in a primary capable of clearing and legitimizing “a leader, who inspires support. She succeeded an outgoing man whose image was damaged. Trump, he went through this stage, and in two months he swept aside RonDeSantis and Nikki Halley.”
The risks of playing on Trump's field
Then, he notes, “after a promising start to the campaign, her strategy, targeting key states and minorities, did not work at all. And then she fell into the trap of electoral campaigns led against populist candidates. Her start to the campaign was joyous , to create consensus, reconcile people, win back the middle classes Then she changed strategy with ad hominem attacks, to respond to those that Trump tirelessly leveled. didn't work”.
Midi Libre – JEAN MICHEL MART
William Genieys recognizes this, “faced with the attacks she has suffered, faced with Trump's rhetoric, it is hard to stay above the fray. But then you start playing a game where he will remain the strongest. Because Donald Trump will always go into disruptive one-upsmanship on which no one will follow him.”
