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An analysis by Andrea Christen
05.11.2024, 04:28
If Donald Trump prevails today, he would have achieved an unprecedented political comeback. In a sense, he would have overcome political gravity. What would bring down the careers of other politicians would not have harmed him – on the contrary: the four criminal indictments, the conviction in New York, the two impeachment proceedings, his frontal attack on US democracy, which culminated in the storming of the Capitol.
Economy could play into Trump’s hands
Probably the most important election issue, the economy, could play into his hands. Many seem to wish they could return to the economy of the Trump years, when everyday things were cheaper. But the linchpin of Trump’s election campaign remains illegal immigration. When he promises mass deportations, he is betting that this rhetoric will get him back into the White House. Anyone who votes for him today now knows exactly what Donald Trump stands for. His penchant for authoritarianism is obvious. For example, he talks about using the military to combat the “enemies within.” Trump, who sees himself as the victim of a legal witch hunt, would probably use the judiciary to take revenge on political opponents.
What held him back in his first term is likely to be missing: moderating figures like his former chief of staff John Kelly, who now calls Trump a fascist. It is very questionable whether the Supreme Court would stand up to Trump. The nine judges – three of whom were appointed by Trump – have given presidents extensive immunity. Resistance within the party is also practically non-existent. If the Republican Party controls both chambers of Congress after this election, Trump would hardly be reined in by the legislature.
Trump’s victory would also have consequences for Europe: the USA’s commitment to NATO would be called into question. The import tariffs that Trump promises will also apply to European products. And if he loses, another attempt to overturn the election result would be likely. Trump and his allies have already prepared the ground for this.
Initial Harris euphoria deceptive
If Kamala Harris wins, she would have achieved a feat: electing a woman as US President for the first time, after an election campaign that lasted just over 100 days. And Harris actually ran a disciplined campaign. But the fact that she didn’t leave Trump behind in the polls shows that the initial Harris euphoria may have been deceptive. For a long time it was unclear what Harris stood for, and she had little time to change that. The left-wing positions she previously held made her vulnerable. Harris also did not have to face an intra-party primary that would have offered the opportunity to distinguish himself.
It is doubtful whether she would be the candidate today if she had had to compete against other party leaders. Harris has made concrete campaign promises, especially when it comes to economic support for the middle class. But her attempt to present herself as a candidate for change is not entirely credible, especially since she is part of the current administration of Joe Biden as vice president. Kamala Harris’ election campaign is also based on the assumption that in 2024 it will be possible for a woman with African and Asian roots to succeed in the US electoral system. Today that assumption is being put to the test.
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