- Kalshi and Polymarket catapulted to the most downloaded free apps on the Apple App Store on Tuesday.
- Kalshi is the betting market open to US citizens, while Polymarket is used by international bettors.
- Kalshi and Polymarket show Trump favored to win the Electoral College, with Harris expected to win the popular vote.
Kalshi and Polymarket zoomed to the top of the Apple App Store on Tuesday amid a surge in election betting in the waning days of the 2024 US presidential campaign.
Kalshi, which is governed by the CFTC and legal for US citizens, held the number one spot, while Polymarket, which is only available to international bettors, had the number two spot on Apple’s list of top free apps.
The two betting apps outranked free downloads for popular smartphone apps like ChatGPT, TikTok, and Instagram.
Kalshi’s ascent in the Apple App Store rankings represented a key goal being reached for the company’s CEO, Tarek Mansour.
“I think we’re gunning for No. 1 for the entire App Store by Election Day, so the demand curve truly is exponential,” Mansour told CNBC last month.
More than $4 billion worth of bets have been placed on various contracts related to the outcome of the US Presidential election on Polymarket, compared to more than $500 million for Kalshi, according to data from both websites as of Tuesday afternoon.
Polymarket has had a significant head start on Kalshi this election cycle, as it wasn’t until early October when a federal judge cleared Kalshi to launch election-linked betting contracts for US citizens.
At 3:11 p.m. E.T., betting odds on Kalshi and Polymarket favor former President Donald Trump to win the Electoral College at 57% to 43% and 62% to 38%, respectively, and Vice President Kamala Harris to win the popular vote at 76% to 24% and 72% to 28%.
Meanwhile, the polls remain much tighter. The latest polling average from 538 has Harris leading 48% versus 46.8% for Trump.
