For a long time, Americans have been accustomed to knowing the name of their next president within hours of the polls closing. However, as was the case in 2020, we may have to wait several days to know who, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, will be declared the winner.
In 2016, Donald Trump was declared the winner the morning after Election Day.
In 2020, Joseph Biden's victory was confirmed on November 7, four days after the polls closed. The delay was mainly caused by the counting of mail-in ballots cast in record numbers because of the pandemic.
With tight results, be careful mirage rouge
Will the count be as long as in 2020? Hard to say.
Some states have changed the election process to improve the efficiency of the process, but polls show Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris in a near tie.
As such, several media outlets are warning that it may take more time for the projections to be accurate enough to declare a winner.
Several major media outlets, including CBC/-, rely, among other things, on the decisions of theAssociated Press to declare a candidate the winner.
This evening, CBC/- will closely monitor the results from theAssociated Press and five American networks (NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN and Fox). Each organization uses an independent methodology to make its own predictions about who will be president of the United States. When three of the five American networks have chosen a winner, and if this result agrees with that of theAssociated PressCBC/- will be able to do the same.
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A ballot used in Oregon. In this state, all voters vote by mail.
Photo: The Canadian Press / Jenny Kane
While waiting for definitive results, we will have to pay attention to what the Americans call the mirage rouge
. When the first results are released this evening, it is likely that the Republicans will appear to have a strong lead. If this lead may seem insurmountable for the Democrats at the start of the evening, it will tend to fade as the ballots are counted.
What explains this phenomenon of mirage rouge
who marked the 2020 elections and who could repeat himself tonight?
One factor is that Democrats tend to live in densely populated urban areas, where vote counting takes longer.
Also, if the Democrats seem to be lagging behind at the start of the evening, it is because voters who support them are more likely to vote by mail.
The way postal or advance ballots are counted and counted differs from region to region. In several states, these ballots will be counted last.
Some states release preliminary results while counting continues, while others must wait until counting is complete before announcing results.
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A voter places her ballot in a drop box at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Elections Center in Phoenix, Arizona.
Photo : Getty Images / AFP / REBECCA NOBLE
According to the Federal Election Assistance Commission, 43% of American voters voted in advance or by mail in 2020, a pandemic-related high. In 2022, 32% of Americans voted by mail. In Oregon, there aren't even polling places, since all voters vote by mail.
This year, requests for absentee ballots are down in some states, which could reduce the time it takes to count those ballots. Already in 2024 (New window) :
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43 million Americans voted early;
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36 million Americans voted by mail;
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An additional 66.5 million voters requested an absentee ballot.
In an effort to speed up the counting process, some states have changed their election laws.
For example, at Michiganau Nevada and in Georgieelection law now allows election staff to begin processing mail-in ballots before Election Day.
On the other hand, in key states of the Wisconsin and the PennsylvaniaRepublican-controlled legislatures blocked bills that would have speeded up the processing of mail-in ballots. In these states, authorities could not begin counting the hundreds of thousands of ballots received in advance before this morning.
Furthermore, in Pennsylvaniaelectoral districts will have to publish preliminary results from midnight. This new provision was conditional on an increase in electoral financing granted in 2022 for this election.
In Arizonaabsentee ballots may be counted before Election Day, but a high proportion of voters only cast them on Election Day. These bulletins late
will be counted only after the polling stations close. Even if they represent only a very small proportion of voters, these votes could be decisive if the results in Arizona are extremely tight.
Au Nevadawe accept ballots sent by mail, but not postmarked, which arrive up to three days after election day, as well as ballots which have a postmark and arrive up to four days after election day.
In North Carolinaif postal or advance votes can be counted before election day, the recent passage of Hurricane Helen has complicated this process, as well as voter registration.
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Ballots are generally counted by machine. According to the Brennan Center for Justice, 98% of votes will be cast on paper. In some states, voters fill out their ballots by hand. In others, after the voter makes their choices on a touch screen, the machine prints a paper ballot or register that the voter can check before voting.
Photo : Getty Images / AFP / Jeff Kowalsky
Au Wisconsin, the authorities began counting the postal ballots this morning, but the results could be delayed in this state, in particular because of the counting at Milwaukee. In this city, there are only 13 machines to count advance or postal votes.
For all these reasons, we expect to have results from key states at different times. In North Carolina and Wisconsin, the results should be known this evening. The choices of residents of Georgia and Michigan could follow within hours or days, while results in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada may take even longer.
Will the results be contested?
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The process for counting ballots varies from state to state.
Photo : Reuters / Cheney Orr
In 2020, Donald Trump took advantage of the long delays before obtaining results to sow doubt about the legitimacy of the electoral process. He proclaimed himself the winner and demanded that the counting be stopped. When Joe Biden was declared the winner four days later, Donald Trump argued that the election was rigged and stolen.
Trump and his allies have lost dozens of lawsuits attempting to invalidate Joe Biden's victory. Even the Voting Integrity Commission created by Donald Trump to investigate alleged voter fraud in the 2016 election found no evidence of wrongdoing.
Most states conduct an automatic recount when there is a margin of difference of 0.5 percentage points or less between candidates.
A candidate can challenge a particular state's results, but not the overall result. The duration of this procedure depends on the state and can vary from a few days to a few weeks. For example, in some states, a candidate must pay the costs of a recount. For example, in 2020, Donald Trump paid $3 million for a recount, which still confirmed Joe Biden's victory.
If results in some counties and districts are extremely close, recounts could have an impact, especially in key states. Generally, however, if a candidate is ahead by a few thousand votes, a recount is unlikely to overturn the result.
According to FairVotesince the year 2000, there have been 36 recounts in states during general elections. Only three of these recounts resulted in new winners being declared and they were decided by a few hundred votes. On average, the outcome of these counts changed the outcome by 0.03%.
Finally, there is the possibility that some election officials will delay announcing the results or refuse to certify them before the electoral college meets in December and the electors vote.
More than 30 election officials in eight states – including Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona – have voted to delay or deny certification of election results if they believe there was fraud.
Note that the laws of these states clearly indicate that local officials do not have the power to reject ballots or derail the process.
