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(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) – The hypothesis that the US elections can only be resolved in a photo finish, or worse that there could be an uncertain outcome even after the polls close, suggests prudence to the markets on both sides of the Atlantic, with the European ones on the eve of the vote they end a session experienced without shocks in a subdued way. In the background remain tensions in the Middle East, the rebound in oil, thanks to OPEC’s postponement of the increase in barrel production, and the approaching Fed meeting on rates. But everyone’s eyes are on the neck and neck in the latest polls between Kamala Harris and Donald Trumpwhich makes the final result uncertain (and, consequently, also the attitude of the markets, which for now remain on the sidelines). Furthermore, in these days it will also be necessary to monitor the meeting (until 8 November) of the Permanent Committee of the National People’s Congress, the highest Chinese legislative body, which could launch measures to support the economy. In particular, according to some analysts, fiscal stimulus measures of at least 2,000 billion yuan (280 billion dollars) could be announced, to complement the monetary stimulus package presented at the end of September. Meanwhile, in Europe the quarterly reporting season is increasingly coming to life.
Milan, ends the session with a deficit of 0.4%, but limits the damage thanks to the run by the bankers. Weaker closing, with a drop of around half a point, for Paris, Frankfurt and Amsterdam, while Madrid closed at -0.3% and London remained at parity.
Wall Street closes lower, DJ -0.61%, Nasdaq -0.33%
Wall Street closes negative. The Dow Jones loses 0.61% to 41,794.60 points, the Nasdaq loses 0.33% to 18,179.98 points while the S&P 500 leaves 0.28% on the ground at 5,712.69 points.
On the quarterly front, over one hundred S&P 500 companies will publish their accounts in these days, including Palantir Technologies (Monday, Nov. 4 after markets close), CVS, Qualcomm, Arm Holdings and Virgin Galactic (Wednesday), Under Armour, Tapestry, Moderna, Warner Brothers Discovery, Airbnb, Capri Holdings, Rivian and Draftkings (Thursday) and Paramount (Friday).
On the electoral front, according to the latest survey by the Des Moines Register, the current vice president of the United States is ahead by three percentage points, 47% against 44%, in Iowa, where Trump has always won in the two previous presidential campaigns. According to a poll by ABC News and Ipsos, Harris would have a 3-point lead nationally. According to the New York Times, Harris would be ahead in five of the seven ‘swing’ states. Investors worry that Trump’s fiscal policies and his trade war against China and the European Union could increase federal debt and boost inflation.
