Today the US will elect a new president, with seven swing states determining the outcome. But when do we expect a first quasi-final result for any of these seven states? Hopefully tomorrow morning, Belgian time.
To immediately temper expectations: in 2020, none of the seven battleground states had a reliable result on election night. Fox News had awarded Arizona to Biden, but other media waited days to confirm that. Only on Saturday, four days after election day, did the media declare Joe Biden the winner of the presidential election. And it took until November 19, 16 days after the elections, before the state of Georgia had an official result after a manual recount, which was fiercely contested by Donald Trump.
Georgia, from last to first?
Now Georgia, with a reformed counting regime, hopes to be the first of the swing states with a result.
The polling stations close at 7 p.m. local time, 1 a.m. in the Belgian night. That closing hour may be delayed if there are still lines of people waiting at election stations.
The results of early voting must be announced an hour after the offices close – more than 4 million votes were cast before Election Day. That leaves just over one million votes to be counted, the votes cast on Election Day. If all goes well, we should know how the 4 million early voters voted just after 2 a.m. on the Belgian night. According to local forecasts, an unofficial final result would be before 6 o’clock in the Belgian morning.
It remains to be seen whether everything will happen as quickly as the authorities think. There are legions of observers in the state attending election offices and counts. Disputes are expected. Trumpian Republicans have objected to mail ballots, which were not sent in the mail but dropped into election offices by voters themselves. The objection has already been rejected by state courts, but a federal court is also considering these unposted mail votes.
Or will North Carolina be the first?
North Carolina promises that 98 percent of votes will be counted by election night, which should allow for an unofficial result. The polling stations close at 7:30 PM local time, 1:30 AM on Belgian night. It should be clear by Belgian morning who wins in that state, unless it is really very close. According to local authorities, the recent devastation caused by Hurricane Helene will not slow down the counts.
This state was the only one of the seven swing states won by Donald Trump in 2020.
Possible early states include Wisconsin and Michigan.
In Michigan, polling stations close at 2 a.m. in Belgium, and in Wisconsin at 3 a.m.
Wisconsin sometimes counts quickly, and even if quasi-complete results were not known, one can get an idea of the trend based on voting districts. A result is expected during Wednesday.
A new law is in force in Michigan that should lead to faster results. A result is also expected here during Wednesday. “Wednesday evening at the latest,” according to local authorities. The score of Jill Stein, the Green candidate, is awaited, who expects votes in this state from opponents of the Biden-Harris Gaza policy.
Ach Pennsylvania
Greater delays in results are expected for the three remaining battleground states.
That’s especially unfortunate for the top prize, Pennsylvania, which awards 19 electors to the Electoral College.
Pennsylvania is a sucker for elections. Each constituency comes with its own rules. Only on election day may postal votes be opened and checked for errors. The early votes may only be processed once the polling stations are closed, at 2 o’clock in the Belgian night. Controls and counts will take time. Moreover, Donald Trump is already contesting some electoral letters.
In Arizona, the election offices close at 3 a.m. Belgian time. Here too, delays may occur due to the verification of postal votes. An additional problem is that most voters received an election letter spanning two pages. Which means that the counting machines have to process two papers per voter instead of one.
In Nevada, where voting is predominantly by mail, voters can mail in their ballots until Election Day. This means that votes will still arrive and be counted in the days after election day. Those responsible have implemented reforms that should speed up the counting process. For example, the election papers may be processed from the opening of the polling stations, instead of after they close (at 4 o’clock in the Belgian night). Preliminary counts were expected to be released on Wednesday, but an unofficial result will have to wait longer.
