Democrats will win the Senate and Gubernatorial races in Washington; Republicans will achieve the “double” in Missouri.
Vancouver, BC [November 4, 2024] – On the eve of the 2024 United States Presidential Election, new polls conducted by Research Co. point to Republican victories in two states and Democratic wins in six others. In three battleground states, the two candidates remain within the margin of error of each other.
California
The last Republican presidential nominee to carry California was George H. W. Bush in 1988. Democrat Joe Biden defeated Republican Donald Trump in 2020, with 63% of all cast ballots. This year, Kamala Harris holds a 33-point advantage over Trump among decided voters (65% to 32%).
Voters in the Golden State are also set to send Democrat Adam Schiff to the U.S. Senate. Schiff holds commanding leads over Republican Steve Garvey (64% to 36% in the Special Election, and 62% to 38% in the Regular Election).
There is also majority support in California for two propositions that are on the ballot in 2024: Proposition 3 or “Constitutional Right to Marriage” (68%) and Proposition 36 or “Allows Felony Charges and Increases Sentences for Certain Drug and Theft Crimes” (69%).
Florida
In this century, the only Democratic nominee who carried the Sunshine State was Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Trump won Florida in 2016 with 49% of the vote and in 2020 with 51% of the vote.
This year, Trump is ahead of Harris in Florida (52% to 46%). In the U.S. Senate race, Republican incumbent Rick Scott is ahead of Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (52% to 45%).
Michigan
In 2016, Trump ended a streak of six consecutive presidential elections where the Great Lakes State was won by Democrats, defeating Hillary Clinton by 10,704 votes in 2016 (47.5% to 47.3%)
In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump (50.6% to 47.8%) to secure Michigan’s 16 Electoral Votes. In this year’s presidential election, on account of reapportionment, Michigan has 15 Electoral Votes.
Harris heads to Election Day with a four-point edge over Trump (51% to 47%). The lead is slightly larger for Democratic candidate Elissa Slotkin against Republican challenger Mike Rogers in the U.S. Senate race (52% to 46%).
Minnesota
No Republican presidential nominee has carried the Great Lakes State since Richard Nixon in 1972. In 2024, Harris leads Trump by eight points (53% to 45%).
In the race for the U.S. Senate, incumbent democrat Amy Klobuchar is significantly ahead of Republican challenger Royce White (57% to 40%).
Missouri
Since 1968, the Democratic nominee for president has won the Show Me State three times: once under Jimmy Carter in 1976 and twice under Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. This year, Trump holds the upper hand over Harris (56% to 41%).
There is also majority support in Missouri for incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Josh Hawley against Democratic candidate Lucas Kunce (54% to 43%) and for Republican gubernatorial contender Mike Kehoe against Democrat Crystal Quade (56% to 41%).
New Jersey
In 1992, Bill Clinton ended a streak of six consecutive elections in which Republican presidential candidates carried the Garden State. The Democratic nominee has won New Jersey in every presidential election since. This year, Harris is 17 points ahead of Trump (58% to 41%).
In the race to the U.S. Senate, Democratic contender Andy Kim leads Republican candidate Curtis Bashaw (58% to 40%). Longtime U.S. Senator Bob Menendez—who resigned earlier this year following his conviction on charges of bribery, extortion, honest services fraud, obstruction of justice and conspiracy—abandoned his independent bid in August.
New York
In 1984, Ronald Reagan was the last Republican nominee to carry the Empire State in a presidential election. Trump—who was born in New York City—received 37% of the vote in 2016 and 38% of the vote in 2020, losing to Hillary Clinton (59%) and Joe Biden (61%) respectively. This year, Trump trails Harris by a smaller margin heading into Election Day (58% to 42%).
Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand holds a significant lead over Republican challenger Mike Sapraicone (64% to 34%).
Pennsylvania
In 2016, Trump became the first Republican nominee to win the Keystone State since George H. W. Bush in 1988, defeating Clinton by 44,292 votes (48.2% to 47.5%).
In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump (50.0% to 48.8%) to capture Pennsylvania’s 20 Electoral Votes. In this year’s presidential election, on account of reapportionment, Pennsylvania has 19 Electoral Votes.
There is no change in the perception of decided voters in Pennsylvania since our look at this race in early October. Harris remains statistically tied with Trump (50% to 49%). The lead is also small for incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey Jr. in his race against David McCormick of the Republican Party (50% to 48%).
Virginia
From 1968 to 2004, only Republican presidential candidates won the Old Dominion State. In 2008, Barack Obama began a run of four consecutive presidential ballots in which Virginia has been carried by Democrats. In 2024, Harris appears ready to extend this streak, with a six-point lead over Trump (52% to 46%).
In the U.S. Senate election, incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine is ahead of Republican contender Hung Cao (56% to 44%).
Washington
No Republican presidential nominee has won the Evergreen State since Reagan in 1984. Forty years later, Harris heads to Election Day with a significant lead over Trump (57% to 41%).
Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell is ahead of Republican contender Raul Garcia (60% to 40%). Democrat Bob Ferguson leads Republican Dave Reichert in the state’s gubernatorial race (57% to 42%).
Wisconsin
In 2016, Trump became the first Republican nominee to win the Badger State since Ronald Reagan in 1984, defeating Clinton by 22,748 votes 47.2% to 46.5%).
In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump (49.4% to 48.8%) to win Wisconsin’s 10 Electoral Votes. In this year’s presidential election, Wisconsin will continue to have 10 Electoral Votes.
Compared to October, Harris has a larger advantage over Trump (51% to 47%). The U.S. Senate race is closer, with incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin slightly ahead of Republican candidate Eric Hovde (50% to 48%).
Methodology: Results are based on online surveys conducted on November 2 and November 3, 2024, among representative samples of 450 likely voters in 11 American states: California, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.
Find our data tables here and download the press release here.
For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] [email protected]
