Republican expectations and Democratic hopes in Congress, the other major issue in the election

The leaders of the US Congress, on the terrace of the Capitol to drive the first nails of the platform built for the presidential inauguration, in Washington, September 18, 2024. MANDEL NGAN / AFP

The back room of the bar where he met in the small town of Beatrice, in southeastern Nebraska, was very empty when Dan Osborn walked in on Saturday, November 2. Imperturbable, the independent candidate, who is running for a seat in the United States Senate, invites the handful of men in caps and checkered shirts who had come to listen to him to sit around a table. He asks their questions, before railing against the weight of economic interests and money in American politics.

A conversation begins about the origin of his campaign funds and the massive customs taxes promised by the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, “which can be a solution” according to him to keep jobs “provided that they are calibrated in such a way that they do not fall on the consumer”.

This mechanic and trade unionist who previously worked in the Navy and his state's national guard is a grain of sand in the electoral machine which should allow the Republican Party to regain control of the Senate in Washington. When questioned, he assures that, if he is elected, he will remain ” independent “ and that he will decide based on the content of the texts, “so that [sa] voice retains the most weight ».

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Dan Osborn, who speaks as he is dressed, in all simplicity, is more than just a figure in the voting intentions against the outgoing Republican senator, Deb Fischer. The latter expected a comfortable re-election, after having forgotten her promise not to run for a third term. Even if the Republican candidate remains the favorite, the presence of the independent candidate upsets her camp and delights the Democratic Party, which did not present a candidate and is watching this unexpected battle as a spectator.

Outgoing Democratic senators particularly exposed

The Republican strategists of the Grand Old Party (GOP) know that the partial renewal of the Senate (34 seats out of 100) which will be held on November 5 is particularly favorable to them. The first good news was recorded in November 2023, with the decision not to run again taken by Senator Joe Manchin, former Democratic governor of West Virginia, whose iconoclastic positions, particularly on energy, had allowed him to be re-elected in 2018 in a solidly Republican state.

The withdrawal of this elected official, who continued to bargain hard for his vote during Joe Biden's mandate and completed his mandate as an independent, ensures the GOP will gain a seat. It thus places the two parties on an equal footing, with 50 senators each.

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