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It's the big day: Americans vote on Tuesday, November 5, to choose the new president of the United States. Who, Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris or former Republican head of state Donald Trump, will succeed Joe Biden? Some 244 million voters are asked to vote on the question, but also on the renewal of the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate. Almost a third of them voted early, either in person or by mail.
The first polling stations, those on the east coast, open from 11 a.m. Tuesday morning (Paris time), but the times differ depending on the States, and even within the States – especially since the American continental territory is 'spans four time zones in total. The same goes for closing hours. Most states will report partial results shortly after polls close. But these will only make it possible to determine the winner if the gap between the two candidates is sufficiently large. In the swing states, the most unpredictable states that could determine the outcome of a historically close election (Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), the wait could thus be particularly long. To make matters worse, it also depends on the counting methods specific to each State. Remember: in 2020, we had to wait several days for Joe Biden's victory against Donald Trump to be confirmed.
Here is the program, hour by hour, of the most important meetings of election night, which you can follow live on the website. Liberation. All are indicated in Paris time.
Midnight: Closure of the first polling stations in Indiana and Kentucky. The two states could be the first to communicate their results. They should have no surprises: they are two Republican strongholds, and their 19 major voters (11 for Indiana and 8 for Kentucky) should go to Donald Trump.
1 hour: Polling stations close in Georgia and Florida. This will be the first major event of election night. In 2020, Joe Biden narrowly won, by 12,000 votes, Georgia and its 16 electors – to the great dismay of Donald Trump, accused of having tried to overturn the result of the vote through fraud. As for Florida, which brings 30 electoral votes to the candidate who comes out on top (i.e. the third “largest” state), it is traditionally won by the Republicans and is not considered a swing state. But the polls are close enough to imagine a surprise.
1:30 a.m.: polling stations close in North Carolina. The polls are extremely close in this state with 16 major voters, which a Democratic presidential candidate has only won twice since 1968 (in 1976 and 2008). North Carolina usually counts the votes fairly quickly, but the counting could be slightly slowed down this year due to changes in the organization of the vote following Hurricane Helene which swept through the territory at the end of September.
2 a.m.: Polls close in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Texas. Of all swing states Americans, Pennsylvania is the one which brings its winner the most voters: 19. It is the most courted state of the election, the one to which Kamala Harris and Donald Trump visited on multiple occasions during of the campaign and where they held their only debate, in September. It was won by Joe Biden in 2020, but by Donald Trump in 2016. The polls, this time, place the two candidates neck and neck. The vote count threatens to take longer than elsewhere: Pennsylvania election law requires officials to wait until polling stations close to begin counting mail-in ballots, which represented during the mid-term elections. 2022 mandate almost a quarter of the votes in this state.
In Michigan (15 major voters), on the other hand, the authorities adopted a new law to speed up the counting of votes, which was particularly slow in 2020. The state has the particularity of spanning two time zones, which means that initial results will be communicated while voting is still underway in part of the territory. In Texas, which provides the second largest national contingent of electors (40), precise results can generally be communicated quickly, due to the electoral rules in force in this state. Since 1980, the Republican candidate has systematically won Texas, but the Democrats' gap continues to diminish.
3 a.m.: Polls close in Wisconsin and Arizona. As in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin election law delays the processing of absentee ballots, increasing the time taken to count them. This is particularly true in large cities, which, like Milwaukee, are more Democratic strongholds. We can therefore expect that the first results communicated after the closing of the polling stations will give Donald Trump a lead, in this state which brings 10 electoral votes to the candidate who came in first and in which it will also be necessary to monitor a decisive duel for the conquest of the Senate between the Democrat Tammy Baldwin and the Republican Eric Hovde.
In Arizona (11 electors), the first results communicated will be essentially based on postal voting, supposed to be more to the advantage of Kamala Harris. The counting of votes sent by mail this Tuesday could take a long time, particularly in Maricopa County, the most important in this southern state, which the Democrats have only won twice in the history of the United States. (including thanks to Joe Biden in 2020). Arizona, like nine other states, is also voting this Tuesday on a referendum proposal aimed at protecting the right to abortion.
4 a.m.: Polls close in Nevada. With 6 major voters at stake, it is the least well endowed of swing states. It has been won by Democrats in the last four presidential elections. The organization of the vote, in this desert state in the west of the United States, is essentially based on postal voting: during the 2022 mid-term elections, 80% of voters voted early, by post or in person. Ballots mailed on Election Day can be counted until November 9. Consequence: we may have to wait several days to know the winner in Nevada, if the results are close, as the polls predict.
5 a.m.: Polling stations close in California. No suspense: the main provider of electoral votes in the United States (54) should go to Kamala Harris. Since 1992, Democrats have always won California, where Joe Biden obtained two-thirds of the vote in 2020.
