Kamala Harris and Donald Trump must reach 270 voters in order to be elected the next US President. It will be as exciting as it is rare: Due to the peculiarities of the US electoral system (the winner in a state receives all the votes in that state), a few thousand votes can decide the outcome of the historic election.
This time too, the result will be decided in the so-called swing states, i.e. the states in which the winner can hardly be predicted in advance. FOCUS online gives an overview of what the surveys predict in the individual states – and where there could be a surprise.
- Needed to win: 270 voters
- Harris 211 voters (139 are certain, 72 are likely)
- Trump: 219 voters (93 are considered certain, 126 are considered likely)
93 electors are allocated across the seven swing states Pennsylvania (19 electors), Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6).
The situation in the seven swing states
Pennsylvania (19 voters): The most important swing state is also the most exciting. In the “Polling Average”, the average of the election surveys, Trump and Harris are neck and neck. In the previous elections, Democrats (2020) and Republicans (2016) each won by one point. The most recent New York Times poll sees a razor-thin lead for Harris – with a margin of error that is significantly larger than the lead.
Georgia (16 voters): The “Polling Average” sees a lead of one percentage point for Trump, the current “New York Times” poll sees Harris in the lead by one point. But the same applies here: the margin of error is larger than the respective projections. In 2020, the Democrats won here by less than one percentage point.
North Carolina (16 voters): It’s getting even tighter: the “Polling Average” sees Trump in the lead here, the “New York Times” implementation sees Harris in the lead (48 to 46 percent). North Carolina voted Republican in both 2016 and 2020 – a loss would be a major setback for Trump’s hopes of returning to the White House. And: Here too, the margin of error is greater than the lead.
Michigan (15 voters): Similar to North Carolina, the “Polling Average” sees a narrow lead of less than one percentage point, but this time for Harris. In the New York Times poll, Trump is slightly ahead.
Arizona (11 voters) : Arizona is the swing state in which the forecasts are still clearest: in the “Polling Average” Trump leads by three points, in the current “New York Times” survey even by four.
Surprise in Iowa?
There could be a surprise in Iowa (six voters). In the last two elections, Trump won here against Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. When Biden was still in the race, Trump was 18 points ahead at times. The “Polling Average” also sees a lead for Trump, albeit only by a comparatively narrow two-point lead. Then where does the idea of a surprise come from?
In a survey by the regional newspaper “Des Moines Register” in collaboration with Mediacom Iowa Poll and the polling institute Selzer & Company, 47 percent of likely voters surveyed said they wanted to vote for Harris – 44 percent would vote for Trump. Harris’ lead is within the margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
What’s special about this survey: Ann Selzer, who is behind the polling institute, is considered an absolute expert in surveys, especially in Iowa. In the last elections she predicted the correct result every time.
