Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are surveying key states to convince the remaining undecided voters, before the vote on Tuesday, November 5. The candidates are neck and neck, two days before the vote.
A vote which promises to be particularly close. Just two days before the election of the 47th President of the United States, the latest polls have Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump almost tied nationally. The battle rages in key states, while a poll from the Des Moines Register newspaper creates a surprise by announcing Kamala Harris in the lead in Iowa, who had nevertheless voted in majority for the businessman in 2016 and 2020 .
According to the poll compiler FiveThirtyEight, the current vice-president of the United States has a slight advantage (47.9%) at the federal level, of only one point, against the ex-president (46. 9%).
The poll conducted by the TIPP Insight institute, published this Sunday, November 3, gives Donald Trump first, with one point more than Kamala Harris (49% vs. 48%) with a surge in Republican voting intentions among women and residents of rural areas. However, 6% of respondents still say they are likely to change their mind.
Another poll, conducted by Atlas Intel and published on Saturday, gives the businessman the winner with 49% of the votes, compared to 47.2% for the former prosecutor and still nearly 2% undecided.
These very small differences are all located within the margin of error and suggest a very uncertain vote, while the American election responds to an indirect voting method and adopts the “winner takes all” rule which gives victory to the statewide to the candidate who came first. A candidate could therefore have more votes nationally, without necessarily winning.
No net advantage in key states
The candidates are also neck and neck in polls focused on certain swing statesthese states considered key to allowing Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to swing the election in his favor.
While many eyes will be on Tuesday on Pennsylvania, a northern state which allows the winner to win 19 major voters, the Republican is given as slightly ahead (50%) against the Democrat (48%) in the latest poll of ‘Intel Atlas.
How the last US elections influenced today’s
The YouGov polling institute, on the other hand, gives Kamala Harris first, with three points more than Donald Trump (51% vs. 48%).
In Arizona, another pivotal state in the presidential election, which shares a border with Mexico, the real estate mogul is given first place both by the Atlas Intel poll (with 52% of voting intentions) and that led by YouGov (50%).
Harris surprise victory in Iowa?
Furthermore, Iowa, located in the Midwest, is currently attracting increased interest from observers of the American campaign, due to a poll conducted by Mediacom for the Des Moines Register, published on Saturday.
It actually gives Kamala Harris in the lead, with 47% of voting intentions against 44% for Donald Trump. A surprising trend, given that this state, stuck between Minnesota and Missouri, voted mainly for Donald Trump in the last two presidential elections, in 2016 and 2020.
“It’s hard for anyone to say they saw it coming,” pollster J. Ann Selzer told the Des Moines Register.
According to the latter, this shift in favor of Kamala Harris would be linked to the support of older women who say they have no political affiliation.
Populated by a little more than 3 million inhabitants, Iowa does not allow the winner to win a very high number of electors, only 6. However, in a very close race, these electors could prove to be precious.
