We should also not expect Trump to offer many security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a negotiated peace. One form of insurance could be membership in NATO, but Trump will never allow that. He finds it a nuisance that the US, on the basis of Article 5 of the NATO Charter, is obliged to come to the aid of other member states if they are attacked.
With Trump, NATO will be under high tension, with the minimum scenario being that he puts heavy pressure on European allies to pay more for defense, and the maximum scenario being that he lets the US leave the alliance. In the meantime, it is quite conceivable that he will remove American troops from Eastern Europe.
With Harris in the White House, NATO’s future would be assured for the time being. Harris will initially follow Biden’s line, also with regard to Ukraine. Yet it is to be expected that the change of power in the White House, together with the more pressing situation on the battlefield, will be a moment for reconsideration of the protracted war.
The fact that Harris does not have the same decades of experience with (Eastern) Europe as Biden and that she comes from the West Coast and not the East Coast can make a difference. Harris will also tighten the thumbscrews among European allies to pay more for Europe’s own defense, if only because America is increasingly turning its attention to China.
Belgium
