Stand: November 1, 2024, 2:26 p.m
Von: Christian Stör
PressSplit
Who will win the US election: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? The outcome seems almost impossible to predict. A data expert thinks differently.
Washington, DC – A few days before the US election, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump seems completely open. All polls show the Democrats and Republicans almost neck-and-neck. Nevertheless, one or two experts are already daring to make a prediction about the possible outcome.
As a rule, most experts currently rely on their gut feeling. Because no one can imagine how reliable the polls for the US election will be this year. As a reminder: In 2016, Hillary Clinton was the clear favorite, but in the end Donald Trump was ahead. In 2020, Joe Biden’s lead was also smaller than predicted. It was different in the 2022 midterm elections: the red wave that was expected at the time did not materialize and the Democrats did significantly better than expected.
Result of the US election: Experts see Harris as the clear favorite against Trump
An expert expects a similar result in the US election on November 5th. For data analyst Christopher Bouzy, the matter is clear: in his opinion, Kamala Harris will win against Donald Trump. And not only that: Bouzy even predicts a result that no one else has in mind. His assessment is indeed out of the ordinary, as a look at his final result in the Electoral College shows:
Harris versus Trump: Expert sees a clear winner in his prediction of the US election result
But is such a landslide victory seriously conceivable? It’s definitely possible. The errors in the surveys don’t even have to be that big. If Harris does just two or three points better than expected in all surveys, she could win all the swing states. Of course, this also applies vice versa.
But Bouzy goes one step further and slams the Trump state of Florida to the Democrat. That’s why in a forecast for the results of the US election she comes to 349 voters for the Electoral College. This actually seems unthinkable based on the polls, some of which show Trump with a double-digit lead here. But Bouzy relies on his own data mining method, which has proven accurate in the 2020 and 2022 elections.
Forecast of the result of the US election between Harris and Trump: expert makes a decision
Could his result apply this time too? In fact, it is unclear how reliable the polls are that predict a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Kamala Harris in the US election. It is clear that pollsters do not know exactly what the electorate is made up of this year. Polling institutes can only make assumptions about how voters will vote in the US election based on data from previous elections and other factors.
Joshua Clinton of Vanderbilt University in Nashville has concerns about weighting based solely on previous elections. “Assuming there is more enthusiasm among Democrats than Republicans, then weighting based on 2020 will underestimate support among Democrats in the poll,” the politics professor told the news outlet AFP.
It will be exciting in the US election campaign
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Expert believes there will be a clear result in the US election between Harris and Trump
Clinton warned of another risk: Since the institutes’ focus is on Trump voters, they run the risk of undervaluing Democratic votes. After 2016 and 2020, “one might be tempted to conclude that the polls always underestimate Republicans, but that’s not true,” said the political scientist. “Who knows what will happen in 2024?”
A landslide victory is therefore not out of the question, neither for Trump nor for Harris. Only election night will show whether Bouzy is correct with his prediction of the outcome of the US election. (cs with AFP)
