Stand: November 1, 2024, 11:06 a.m
Von: Mark Stoffers
PressSplit
According to current surveys, the results of the US election could hardly be closer. An expert dares to cautiously predict the winner of Trump and Harris.
Washington DC – The 2024 US election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could have a historically close outcome in the battle for the White House. Even if an insider makes a clear forecast for the US election. The surveys seem to change almost every day. Sometimes the experts see Trump and sometimes Harris at the forefront when it comes to forecasts for the US election. In the end, it will probably only come down to a few votes that will determine victory.
Results of the 2024 US election: Polls predict Trump will win against Harris
According to the latest surveys and forecasts for the results of the 2024 US election, pollsters predict that Trump has a slight lead over his Democratic competitor Harris. However, the fight for the White House is so close that the US election could go either way.
They attribute their forecasts to the fact that Trump’s national averages improved slightly compared to Harris in last week’s US election. In the crucial swing states for the results of the US election, the fight between Harris and Trump remains a back and forth. This is where the head-to-head race is even more clearly reflected, as the candidates are either practically tied or just barely in various surveys lie in front.
Results of the 2024 US election: In his forecast, a survey expert sees a winner with Trump against Harris
Veteran pollster Nate Silver, who FiveThirtyEight and now uses a similar forecasting model for his blog Silver Bulletin, recently wrote in the New York Timesthat the assessment that the race is 50:50 is the “only responsible forecast”. Silver added that his “gut feeling” suggests Trump will win the Electoral College count. Meanwhile, the “Terminator” and Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger has decided between Trump and Harris in the US election.
“However, I don’t believe anyone’s gut feeling, including mine, should be given any value,” Silver wrote about the possible results of the Nov. 5 U.S. election. “Instead, come to terms with the fact that a 50-50 forecast really means 50-50. They should remain open to the possibility that these predictions are wrong, and that could be the case for both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris.” One expert, however, makes a gloomy forecast for the US election and points to a landslide victory for Trump there.
Latest surveys and forecasts on the results of the US election between Trump and Harris
Harris’ clearest path to victory in November would depend on successes against Trump in the three battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring shocking results elsewhere in the 2024 US election. Trump’s most efficient path to 270 of the so-called electoral votes would be a victory in Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.
While there is a neck-and-neck race in the swing states in the US election, Harris is in the lead FiveThirtyEight According to the latest surveys and forecasts for the results of the 2024 US election, the national average is just over 1.4 points ahead of Trump (48.1 percent to 46.7 percent). This is a slight decrease from the 1.7 point lead it had on October 22nd.
Results of the 2024 US election: Important institute sees great chances of Trump winning the election against Harirs
Nevertheless, the US polling institute predicts that Trump has a 54 percent chance of winning the race in November. However, it also emphasizes that the predicted results of the US election are currently essentially a draw.
“The close race makes it necessary to repeat what was done here FiveThirtyEight has become something of a mantra lately: A close race in the polls doesn’t necessarily mean the result will be close,” wrote G. Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight. “All seven swing states are still within normal polling error to go to the candidate who is currently ‘losing’ in each of these states.”
Poll lead for Harris in the US election? Other forecasts show an advantage for Trump
Silver’s model gives Harris a national average poll lead of 1.1 points over Trump (48.6 percent to 47.5 percent) in the 2024 US election. Trump’s ratings have improved by 0.5 points compared to last week and could have an impact on the results of the US election.
Sees Harris’ lead in the votes RealClearPolitics but a little different. The platform first reported on October 26 that Trump had overtaken the Democrat in the national average since Kamala Harris was nominated. According to their numbers, Trump is currently 0.4 points ahead of Harris (48 percent) at 48.4 percent. Another snapshot in the head-to-head race for the White House.
Current surveys on the results of the US election: In the head-to-head race, Harris is probably a hair’s breadth ahead of Trump
According to the survey results for the 2024 US election by Decision Desk HQ/The Hill Harris is 0.6 points ahead of Trump nationally (48.3 percent to 47.7 percent). This is a decrease from the 1-point lead the incumbent vice president had just last week. Silver Bulletin reports, among other things, that according to the survey, Harris is ahead in the important swing states of Nevada (0.1 points), Michigan (0.9 points) and Wisconsin (0.3 points). Trump, on the other hand, appears to be leading Harris in Pennsylvania (0.4 points), North Carolina (1.1 points), Georgia (1.9 points) and Arizona (2.3 points).
RealClearPolitics again reports that Trump is ahead of Harris in all swing states. Only in Michigan does the Democrat still maintain a lead of 0.5 points. The former president therefore leads in Arizona (plus 2.5 points), Georgia (2.4 points), Nevada (0.5 points), North Carolina (1 point), Pennsylvania (0.5 points) and Wisconsin (0. 6 points). In the end, in the last week before the US election, the outcome remains on a knife’s edge. And in the end, only November 5th and the days beyond will reveal who will really come out on top in this historically close race when it comes to the results of the 2024 US election.
