The state of American democracy will be sorely tested over coming weeks while the election outcome is determined.
Support for the candidates is almost evenly split along gender, education, race, demographic, religious and geographic lines. Final turnout will determine if there is blowout for one candidate.
America’s divisions are structural, there are very few independents left in American politics.
Former president Donald Trump has been adept at intuiting and articulating the concerns of Americans who feel like outsiders in their own country, deeply distrustful of its institutions and yearning for a return to an economic and social order in their own image.
Social media is exacerbating division and the culture and identity wars that hark back to an era of “normalcy” that was subverted by immigration, the expansion of rights without responsibilities and when free speech was not allegedly oppressed by a pervasive political correctness.
Trump supporters do not want Americans to fight for abstract principles such as the global rules-based order or on behalf of those who would sponge off America’s generosity. No more forever wars like Iraq and Afghanistan, home is the priority.
To supporters, Trump presents as the experienced deal-maker. He professes and makes a virtue of being “crazy” – a chaos theory of foreign policy. This is sold as a force for world peace as it will purportedly put other leaders off balance and keep them guessing about his intentions. Statecraft rests on the assertion of raw power among nation states, not alliances and partnerships or multilateralism.
Taiwan is chaos theory in action; the former president is keeping everyone guessing about his intentions. He has spoken of how Taiwan took the chip industry from America; maybe it will be defended if China invades, maybe not; maybe extra tariffs will be put on China if that happens but anyway it’s academic because Xi Jinping respects him and would not invade on his watch.
Ukraine would not have happened for the same reason. He can solve it with President Putin within days. According to this theory of foreign policy, autocrats are to be respected and courted. We should be friendly with Kim Jong-un, after all he has nuclear weapons.
On trade, Trump is an old-fashioned mercantilist – American surpluses good, deficits bad. The best bilateral deals tilt the playing field back in America’s favour. The North American Free Trade Agreement was tweaked into the Mexico-Canada agreement and sailed through the Congress with Democrat support. The backlash to free trade runs deep. But … there may be limited carve outs for countries such as Australia because we have a trade deficit with America and carry our weight on defence.
The Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese should make an early visit Washington in the event of a Trump victory. While many world leaders will be thinking the same, we have a special standing. In preparation for a visit, there should be pre-trip consultations with close partners in the region, particularly Japan.
Australia must leverage her agency, influence and impact in Washington across the political aisle. We have fought together for humane, universal values as loyal but not subservient allies and partners throughout the last century and this. The US alliance serves our national interest and sovereignty of decision-making. Australians are skilled in providing frank and fearless advice to leaders in Washington, without resorting to a megaphone.
We must prioritise discussion of the security and economic architecture of our region, which clearly links to our bilateral concerns. The conversation should be built around why that architecture matters to America. Why Americans should not underestimate the benefits to them of the lattice work of groupings among allies and partners in the Indo Pacific including Aukus, the Quad leaders’ meeting and other mini laterals involving America, Australia, Japan, Korea and the Philippines. Outreach to Asean and the Pacific islands also enhances American influence in the region (leaders turning up to regional summits matters in that regard).
Regional groupings valued by the participants will likely persist in the absence of the US. It has happened before. When America opted out of its own gold standard Trans-Pacific Partnership in the heat of the 2016 election, Australia, Japan and Canada resuscitated it as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. While America refuses to enter into market access agreements, China has been entering into new regional trade agreements and is knocking on the door of the CPTPP.
Trade is a vital interest to countries such as Australia – we have a big stake in the multilateral trading system. Beggar-thy-neighbour tariff policies do not work and have perverse domestic effects. Cost pressures and inflation will rise, taking jobs away from other Americans. Joe Biden did not remove the Trump China tariffs and the trade deficit with China grew. More tariffs mean more misery all round.
The global rules-based order is not an abstraction. American security rests as much, if not more, on an order that is not inimical to American interests as it does on the size of her armed forces or nuclear arsenal. America’s unique advantage over China is her network of allies and partners, a coalition of like-minded democracies that stand for something other than narrow self-interest.
That advantage rests in large measure on America’s soft power – intangibles such as culture and values – which complements and legitimises the assertion of hard power. America does fall short of her own high standards from time to time and no country has a monopoly on morality. Over the longer run, however, without a moral foundation, the exercise of hard power reduces to the law of the jungle.
Not all wisdom resides in Washington and Australia has much to offer.
