After a generally mild and calm weekend, much more disturbed conditions will affect Lorraine in the coming days, particularly from Wednesday. The peak of this sequence will occur between Wednesday and Thursday, with ex-Hurricane Kirk expected to reach Western Europe. As it passes, a strong gale, or even a storm, is expected to occur in France. At this time, the intensity of the episode, however, remains to be confirmed.
This Monday: softness and humidity on the program
This Monday morning, the minimums in the plains will range between 12 and 14°C. In the afternoon, it will be 16 to 19°C (the highest maximum values will then be observed in Moselle-east and in the south of Meurthe-et-Moselle). The weather won’t be good though. Indeed, further rains will affect the region. Also, a first rainy front will approach the region from the southwest (Vosges and Meuse) from 6-7 a.m. The following hours, the latter will slowly shift towards the northeast. Around 11 a.m., all of Lorraine will be affected by rain and showers of moderate intensity. We will also have to wait until midday to find drier conditions in the Meuse and the Vosges. In Moselle and Meurthe-et-Moselle, the rains will stop between 1 and 2 p.m. (3 p.m. in Moselle-est).
At the end of the day, a second, more substantial rainy front will return to the region from Burgundy – Franche-Comté. The Vosges department will be the first affected from 6-7 p.m. Around 8 p.m., all of Lorraine will be affected by heavy rain. These will even take on a stormy character in places. Also, wind gusts from the south to southwest will reach up to 50 km/h (very locally more) and thunder may be observed locally.
By the night of Monday to Tuesday, the accumulations will already be significant in Lorraine, particularly towards the Vosges and, to a lesser extent, the Moselle and the south of Meurthe-et-Moselle. In the Southern Vosges and in the Hautes-Vosges, the accumulations will generally be around 40, or even 50, millimeters. Over the southeastern two-thirds of the region, these will be of the order of 10-20 millimeters. Finally, it will generally fall less than 10 millimeters in the west of Moselle, in the north of Meurthe-et-Moselle and in Meuse.
Tuesday: wet and unsettled weather again
On Tuesday, a new rainy front will reach the region from the southwest at the end of the night. The latter should approach the region from the south and west from 3-4 a.m. Also, there will be a pattern of showers in Lorraine. These showers will take on a more continuous and persistent character towards the Vosges department, eastern Moselle and the south-east of Meurthe-et-Moselle. Furthermore, these showers will become less and less numerous as the hours go by and timid clearings may reappear in the afternoon.
The atmosphere will remain mild for the season and temperatures will be stationary throughout the day. The mercury will generally oscillate between 14 and 17°C in the plains. During the day, gusts from the southwest will reach 20 to 35 km/h (up to 50 km/h in the rain early in the morning).
Towards a gale, or even a storm, between Wednesday and Thursday?
As announced for several days, the depression linked to Hurricane Kirk will return to France between Wednesday and Thursday. Also, according to the latest models, this depression, deepened around 980 hPa, will cross France from west to east between Wednesday evening and Thursday afternoon. It will then generate powerful gusts of wind in Lorraine and the rest of France. Also, a risk of storm cannot be ruled out in the country, particularly on the Atlantic coasts. In this context, certain models envisage gusts of the order of 110-130 km/h, or even more, towards Gironde, Landes and Vendée during the night from Wednesday to Thursday, as evidenced by the following map :
In Lorraine, the wind will also be strong between Wednesday night and Thursday and Thursday afternoon. According to the latest models, gusts of around 90-100 km/h will be observed Thursday afternoon in Lorraine. Note that at this deadline, a certain uncertainty persists. Also, while some models envisage a “simple” gale in the region, with gusts of around 70-80 km/h, others do not exclude the occurrence of a storm with gusts greater than 100 km/h. In this context, it will be appropriate to wait for the forecasts to become clearer before providing a more complete update on the upcoming episode.
