ATP Finals – Masters, place au rush final

Shanghai has cleared up the landscape, but the suspense remains alive in the race to qualify for the ATP Finals. Novak Djokovic, thanks to his place as finalist in the Chinese Masters 1000, moved back to 6th place. Mathematically, he is not completely out of the woods yet, but he has taken a significant step towards Turin.

For now, only three players are officially qualified. Here is the update before the last three weeks which will crescendo with a week of 250 (Antwerp, Stockholm, Almaty), then two simultaneous 500s (Vienna, Basel) and finally the final Masters 1000 of the calendar, in Paris. Many options remain on the table.

1. Jannik Sinner 10330 points
2. Carlos Alcaraz 6710
3. Alexander Zverev 6215

The Italian and the Spaniard won the four Grand Slam tournaments of the year between them. Sinner’s points total is already colossal before the last meetings of the season since he crossed the threshold of 10,000 points in Shanghai since January 1st.

Alexander Zverev has still not won a Major, but only Sinner has signed more victories than him in 2024 for the moment (59 for the German). Only one title to his credit, the Masters 1000 in Rome, but two finals (Roland-Garros, Hamburg) and six other semi-finals, including the Australian Open, Miami and Cincinnati. Solid.

It’s really a matter of saying that Daniil Medvedev is not yet qualified for the Masters because, for the rest, it’s as if it was done. The cut is currently set at 4945 points and the Russian already has 4820. In short, father Daniil will be at the ATP Finals for the sixth consecutive year, no doubt about it.

It’s a curious year for him. Frustrating, above all, like his final lost in Melbourne against Sinner when he was leading two sets zero. “The Australian” set the tone for his campaign: a high level, sometimes very high, but an inability to go all the way since he still has not won a single tournament. It’s starting to be long: his last title? Rome, in spring 2023.

Shanghai did him good. By qualifying for the semi-finals, Taylor Fritz rose above 4000 points. The US Open finalist has made the difference, probably for good, since he now has almost 1000 points more than the first non-qualifier, Alex de Minaur. It is now difficult to see how four players could pass him in the next three weeks. One, why not, two, if necessary, but four…

Novak Djokovic’s situation is a little less comfortable since the Serb is “only” 605 points ahead of 9th. But he too should see several players (re)pass under his nose as he has just climbed to 6th place by leaving Shanghai. His place as finalist in the Chinese Masters 1000 put him back in qualifying position. He now has every chance of equaling the Masters participation record by appearing on the starting line for the 17th time, like a certain Roger Federer.

Be careful, however: “Nole” will not play in 500 next week, unlike Fritz, De Minaur and Dimitrov in Vienna, or Rublev, Ruud and Tsitsipas in Basel. He could therefore find himself under threat again at the dawn of the decisive week at Bercy. But if he plays in eastern Paris at the level he did in Shanghai, there is no reason for qualification to pass him by, the King of indoor.

7. Casper Ruud 3805
8. Andrey Rublev 3580

If the Masters started now, they would be celebrating. But Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev will have to find a second wind very quickly if they do not want to end 2024 on the back foot. The Norwegian is particularly struggling after losing five of his last six matches. His Asian tour turned into a fiasco: two entry eliminations in Tokyo then Shanghai.

Rublev is sitting on his side on the last jump seat and as he hasn’t really been exuding serenity lately either, it looks more and more like an ejection seat. However, he still has a 275-point margin over Alex de Minaur. It’s not much but, after all, he still has the guarantee of being on the right side of the waterline before the last two weeks.

9. Alex de Minaur 3305
10. Grigor Dimitrov 2935
11. Tommy Paul 2885
12. Stefanos Tsitsipas 2835
13. Hubert Hurkacz 2630
14. Frances Tiafoe 2510

Everyone understood the urgency. If Sinner, Alcaraz, Zverev, Medvedev, Fritz and Djokovic are resting this week, the six players following the Race are on deck this week. Every point will count, every misstep can quickly become one too many.

De Minaur is seated between two chairs. His injury took him out of the provisional Top 8 but with 3305 points, he remains in the race and is significantly ahead of the others. For Dimitrov, Paul and other Tsitsipas, qualification for the Masters now requires a huge finale, particularly in the week of the 500 and then at Bercy. They no longer have a choice.