Each year begins with a series of reports on the future of the space industry. I will not come back to the size and importance of the space economy, but it is clear that it is the decisions taken immediately that will shape the future of spatial exploration. Whether in China, where players in the sector are mainly state, or in the United States, where the private sector takes the front, we are witnessing a “win-win” scenario today. It was in 2025 that the contours of the big winners will take shape.
The “win-win” aspect of the space industry is largely influenced by the fact that most of the commercial orders still come from governments today, and mainly sovereign institutions. The commercial share of the space economy is still too modest to change the situation. Thus, it is the strategic decisions taken this year that will determine the winners of the competition for space, especially in the Western hemisphere.
There is no doubt that SpaceX positioned itself as the cornerstone of a pivotal year. In 2024, SpaceX made 138 launches, including 132 Falcon 9 missions, two Falcon Heavy missions and four Starship test flights. Globally, there were 259 orbital launch attempts last year. Only two of these launches were made from Europe.
If we examine the spatial economy, we see that historical players continue to grab the largest share of the market.
Khald Abou Zahr
With regard to the mass of the payload, SpaceX delivered approximately 1.6 million kg in orbit in 2024. This represents almost 80% of the total mass of useful orbit loads. What is interesting is that SpaceX focused on Starlink missions, which represented around 67% of the total of its launches. She therefore created a self-director prophecy which will allow her to take the lead in the classification. Blue Origin successfully launched its New Glenn rocket last week, but it failed to land on a platform in the Atlantic Ocean. This highlights the difficulty of space.
These attempts confirm, if necessary, that space represents a historical opportunity in terms of trade and investment. However, like the media or technology, it is an atypical activity. In other words, growth is captured by a limited number of actors and unevenly. As in the field of technology, the United States has been able to create a new wave of space and defense giants. Europe has not yet been able to do so.
Indeed, if we examine the spatial economy, we see that historical players continue to grab the largest share of the market, and this extends to defense and security due to double nature use of activity. These companies, whether American or European, have their origin in the 1920s, for the most part, with a renewed interest in new technologies after the Second World War. Due to the nature of the activities in these areas, it is difficult for new actors to reach a critical mass and not to be integrated. In the field of space and defense, the United States has new champions that are developing and disrupting the market exactly a century later. Europe is still trying to understand the concept.
Another key transformation for the space industry lies in the obvious integration of artificial intelligence. As such, it is interesting to emphasize that a space company developing solutions based on AI, whether it is the observation of the land or the management of the situation in space, could be Find disadvantaged in front of a pure AI giant, capable of applying its model to the space ecosystem. This is why we observe a strong tendency to collaborate with sisters companies or convergence with other sectors to meet this need. Here again, the United States benefits from a decisive advantage.
We understand that any country that has no launch capacity will always be dependent and subject to another country. This does not mean that each country must develop its own launch capacity, because the investment may not be worth it for its needs, but it will have to maintain good relations with those who have one. Some nations, or the EU, will probably decide to maintain this capacity at a much higher cost than other services for reasons of sovereignty. However, from a commercial point of view, it will not make sense and will not allow the same growth as in the United States. China and India will benefit from their public-private partnerships and will most certainly be able to achieve greater capacity at lower cost. India could exceed many other countries in the future.
-This year, space will no longer be considered a global collaboration platform, but as a world of fierce competition.
Khald Abou Zahr
Another evidence emerges: although marketing is still in the development phase, the opportunity is very real. This is why this year will mark a significant transition from space as a global collaboration platform to a fierce competition environment. In the West, access to the American market will be crucial for any company wishing to ensure its sustainability.
A direct consequence of this growing interest is the militarization of space. Nations must protect their satellites because, in today’s world where data is essential, losing satellites is becoming blind. This means that military strengthening in space is now a necessity. In addition, nations will also seek means to maintain satellites longer and maintain them more quickly. This is how we will see orbit services appearing from repairs and fuel supply to data storage and energy. The terrestrial severity being expensive, the limitation of launches will increase efficiency.
We arrive at the next step, the moon. The development of an infrastructure on the moon will be the realization of a new field of action. First of all, launches from the moon will cost less. The moon could also become a service station for the orbit ecosystem. It is essential to protect this infrastructure, which would make it a military base or an outpost. SpaceX believes that the Moon is a distraction and that Mars should be the direct target in order to make the man multiplanetary to avoid extinction. However, for the moment, the geopolitics of terrestrial orbit is the dominant factor.
Like the nation that has mastered the oceans dominated the planet, we are now heading towards a world where it is the nations that master the space that will have power. And, as in the past, where only a few companies intrinsically linked to the State and its decisions dominated, space seems to follow the same trajectory. This is why this year promises to be decisive to determine the rare winners.
Khaled Abu Zahr is the founder of Spacequest Ventures, an investment platform focused on space. He is CEO of Eurabiamedia and editor-in-chief of Al-Watan al-Arabi.
Editor’s note: the opinion expressed in this page is specific to the author and does not necessarily reflect that of Arab News in French.
This text is the translation of an article published on ArabNews.com
