the attitude of the Socialist Party changes the situation for the post-Macron era

The Socialists' decision not to censor François Bayrou removes the specter of an early presidential election and leaves the possibility for a reformist candidate to win in 2027.

The socialists' decision not to censor François Bayrou on Thursday January 16 could permanently change the political situation. Firstly because the PS places itself at the center of the political scene, as a demanding interlocutor of the government. In opposition, but ready to negotiate to extract concessions from him. Then because the socialists have freed themselves from the supervision of LFI. Jean-Luc Mélenchon strongly announced the fall of François Bayrou. He now predicts that of Emmanuel Macron.

The rebel has locked himself into a strategic impasse. It offers no other way out than the blocking of the country and institutional chaos. A “Madame Irma whose prophecies never come true”, laughs François Hollande. Basically, the emancipation of the PS loosens the grip in which the political debate has been locked since 2022, and even more so since the legislative elections last July.

Many envisaged, as the only presidential horizon, especially in the event of an early election, a deadly duel between Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The leader of the far right is the other big loser in the new political situation. If François Bayrou continues the same discussion on the budget with the PS, without losing the support of the center and the right, then the RN is no longer of any use.

If the Prime Minister's concessions are up to par, the PS has no reason to censure the government on the budget. What interest would the socialists have in returning sheepishly, with their heads bowed, to the NFP house to take a beating from Jean-Luc Mélenchon? To be effective, the PS strategy must be sustainable. In fact, as Édouard Philippe understood, who repeated on Sunday January 19 that he would indeed be a candidate for the next presidential election, by overcoming the pitfall of censorship, François Bayrou is beginning to redraw the contours of the post-Macron era. From the right, the left, or the center, it once again becomes possible that the succession of the head of state will be reformist, and not extremist.