In its latest information note, the HCP indicates that Household Confidence Index (HCI) recorded “a slight improvement”. The index stood at 46.5 points, instead of 46.2 points recorded the previous quarter and 44.3 points the same quarter of the previous year.
82.7% of households expect an increase in unemployment
In the fourth quarter of 2024, 81% of households report a deterioration of standard of living over the last 12 months, 14.2% maintained the same level and 4.8% improved. The balance of opinion on the past evolution of the standard of living remained negative, at minus 76.2 points, against minus 75.8 points in the previous quarter and minus 83.2 points in the same quarter of last year.
In addition, 53.8% of households expect a deterioration in the standard of living over the next 12 months, 38.5% will maintain the same level and 7.7% will improve. The balance of opinion relating to this indicator thus stands at minus 46.1 points, compared to minus 49.3 points in the previous quarter and minus 49.0 points in the same quarter of last year.
At the same time, 82.7% against 5.5% of households expect an increase in unemployment over the next 12 months. The balance of opinion thus remained negative, at minus 77.2 points, compared to minus 76.3 points recorded a quarter previously and minus 80.3 points in the same quarter of last year.
An unfavorable situation for the purchase of durable goods according to household perceptions
On the investment side, 80% compared to 8.1% of households consider that now is not the right time to make purchases of durable goods. The balance of opinion for this indicator thus stood at minus 71.9 points, compared to minus 69.7 points the previous quarter and minus 70.4 points in the same quarter of 2023.
Only 2.3% of households say they save part of their income
In terms of financial situation, 56.5% of households believe that their income covers their expenses41.2% say they go into debt or dip into their savings and 2.3% say they save part of their income. The balance of opinion relating to the current financial situation of households thus remained negative, at minus 38.9 points, compared to minus 39.3 points the previous quarter and minus 40.3 points the previous year.
As for the evolution of their financial situation over the last 12 months, 52.7% versus 5.0% of households consider that it has deteriorated. The balance of opinion relating to this indicator thus remained negative at minus 47.7 points, compared to minus 48.4 points in the previous quarter and minus 56.1 points in the same quarter of the previous year.
That said, 15.2% versus 31.5% of households expect an improvement in their financial situation. The balance of opinion for this indicator thus stood at minus 16.3 points, compared to minus 18.1 points a quarter previously and minus 10.6 points a year earlier.
Furthermore, 11.1% versus 88.9% of households expect to save over the next 12 months. The balance of opinion relating to this indicator remained negative, at minus 77.8 points, instead of minus 78.1 points in the previous quarter and minus 80.7 points in the same quarter of last year.
Almost all households (97.5%) declare that price of food products have increased over the past 12 months. The balance of opinion remains at minus 97.2 points, a level identical to that of the previous quarter, compared to minus 97.4 points recorded in the same quarter of the previous year.
As for the prospects for their evolution over the next 12 months, the prices of food products should continue to increase according to 83.3% of households, compared to only 1.5% who expect them to fall. The balance of opinion thus remained negative, standing at minus 81.8 points, instead of minus 83.5 points recorded a quarter previously and minus 77.6 points a year earlier.
