Things are happening in the sky. Recent studies show that an X-ray explosion could change the trajectory of an asteroid. This hypothesis was tested in the laboratory where researchers bombarded a miniature target, the size of a marble, with X-rays, simulating the effect of a nuclear explosion in space. The material vaporized by this explosion acts as propulsion that pushes the asteroid in the opposite direction, validating theories that predicted such a deflection effect.
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Asteroid deflection techniques were also explored with NASA’s DART mission in 2022. During this full-scale test, a spacecraft collided with a 160-meter-wide asteroid, slightly altering its trajectory. However, this method could be ineffective against much more massive asteroids, such as Chicxulub, which caused a mass extinction 66 million years ago. In this context, a nuclear explosion could be considered for larger asteroids, particularly if there is sufficient time to deploy this solution.
Sandia National Laboratories experiments show that a nuclear bomb, by exploding near an asteroid, could significantly modify its trajectory. In the absence of an atmosphere in space, there would be no shockwave or fireball, but only X-rays that would vaporize the surface of the asteroid, creating backlash propulsion. Researchers estimate that a one-megaton bomb, exploding several kilometers from the asteroid, could be enough to deflect an asteroid four kilometers in diameter if the threat is detected in time.
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Computer simulations and additional research support these results. To refine these strategies, the European Space Agency’s Hera mission will take a closer look at the asteroid Dimorphos, hit by DART, to better understand the structure and strength of asteroids.
These studies aim to prepare humanity for various impact scenarios, recognizing that each asteroid is unique and may require specific intervention methods. But nothing stops us from studying the question and “preparing for all scenarios”, because as Nathan Moore explains, “the biggest uncertainty at the moment” is that asteroids “are of all kinds”, like the Union reports.
