Barely three months after its launch, the Vision Pro seems to have almost fallen back into anonymity, an anomaly for Apple. While it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions, the first signals are not very encouraging for its first mixed reality headset. According to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, always very well informed about the supply chain, the Apple group has revised its objectives downward for 2024. It only plans to produce 400,000 to 450,000 copies, after having sold more than 150,000 during the first weekend of marketing. “Demand on the American market fell more sharply than feared,” underlines the analyst, which pushed Apple “to take a more conservative approach” for launch in other countries, announced by the end of the year.
High price – Last year, when the Vision Pro was presented, Apple expected 900,000 units to be sold in the first year. More recently, analysts anticipated between 700,000 and 800,000 sales. Several elements explain these timid beginnings. Starting with the price of $3,500, which greatly limits the commercial potential. The device is also penalized by the absence of a killer app, an application that alone would justify the purchase by the general public. Or even by a very perfectible comfort of use. Beyond these figures, the main failure of the Vision Pro comes, for the moment, from the lack of enthusiasm it arouses. Apple was indeed hoping to start imposing a new platform, “spatial computing”, capable of one day replacing smartphones or computers.
Vicious circle – Faced with this observation, the Vision Pro could find itself locked in a vicious circle, which has already plagued many devices. Its handicaps do not encourage consumers to purchase, which results in a user base that is too weak to convince developers to create new applications… even though they are essential to its success. Netflix, YouTube, Spotify and Instagram have therefore not seen fit to develop a dedicated application. And refused to have their iPad application automatically available. Absences which undermine Apple’s marketing discourse, which presents its headset as “the ultimate entertainment device”. Other developers don’t follow. In the last week of March, only one new app was launched, according to figures from Appfigures.
Cheaper version – The Vision Pro represents a real challenge, even for Apple. The augmented reality market has indeed experienced numerous failures, such as Microsoft’s HoloLens headset and that of the start-up Magic Leap. The Cupertino company certainly has weighty arguments: its brand image, its immense fan base and its expertise in hardware and user experience. But success is not guaranteed. In the long term, this will involve the creation of use cases that justify not simply using a smartphone or a television. And by the launch of a more affordable version, incorporating a lower screen resolution and a less powerful chip. This model should not be marketed next year, as initially expected, however predicts Ming-Chi Kuo.
For further:
– In the metaverse, Facebook (finally) reveals spectacular progress
– Apple launches into augmented reality, a market with multiple failures
