gusts to 130 km/h, heavy rain, trajectory… what this probable storm has in store for us

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Kirkthis is the name of the hurricane, the remains of which will cross France during the night of Wednesday October 9 to Thursday October 10, 2024. It remains to be seen what the intensity of the winds will be. But it is likely that the storm stage will be reached by the time Kirk «percutera» French territory.

While it is still too early to say with certainty where, the scenarios also diverge as to the intensity of the winds and even rains.

Where will the hurricane sweep across France?

“What we must remember is the speed with which Kirk will cross France,” underlines Guillaume Séchet, meteorologist at meteo-ville.com withactu.fr. But also, its itinerary.

From the coasts of Senegal, the hurricane moved north before seeing its trajectory deviated by the Gulf Stream, a warm ocean current, and heading straight to Europe. And in particular, on its west facade: France.

We must imagine a Nantes (Loire) – Nancy (Meurthe-et-Moselle) axis.

In other words, from the middle of western France, Nantes, passing through Angers, Tours, Orléans or even Troyes, before reaching the east, Nancy.

A trajectory resumed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which has been tracking Hurricane Kirk since its appearance in the warm waters of the southern Atlantic Ocean.

If the first phase of Kirk is quite well known, with its entrance from the west facade during the day of Wednesday October 9, 2024, late in the afternoon. It is on the morning of Thursday October 10, 2024 that the course of the climatic event remains unclear.

“Some models indicate the storm could deviate to the northwest quarter of France,” says Guillaume Séchet to actu.fr. In other words, rather towards Reims (Marne) or even Sedan (Ardennes) and no longer towards Nancy and the Grand Est region.

At what intensity for the gusts?

Here again, the models change depending on the scenarios. Of “90 to 130 km/h”evokes Guillaume Séchet at actu.fr. A fairly large delta which does not generate the same consequences. Obviously, residents and infrastructure have less to fear at 90 km/h rather than 130.

This difficult forecast is explained by the “chaotic” aspect of the tropical phenomenon. “The hurricane is now full of energy, fast, it is almost ridiculous to want to predict it,” quips the meteorologist.

So, on the French coasts, where the wind will blow the strongest, you will need to plan for between 110 and 130 km/h. Inland, between 90 and 110 km/h. Of the figures to be taken with great caution “by virtue of the unpredictability” of the storm, underlines Guillaume Séchet.

What is certain, however, is that some won’t even realize that violent winds cross the fields. “It’s at night,” confides Guillaume Séchet. So obviously, there will be fewer harmful consequences.”

The presence of rain?

Strangeness of the phenomenon, the rain will move with Hurricane Kirk, but rather to the north of the phenomenon. “While the winds will be more localized to the south of the storm,” points out the meteorologist at actu.fr.

What to expect? “During the night (Wednesday to Thursday, editor’s note) there will be between three weeks and a month of rain. » 30 to 40 mm, according to Météo-France Ouest, in its bulletin of Sunday October 6.

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