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How many points are needed to pass and limits of the exercise

The most prestigious club competition has evolved this year, just to open up the debates a little more. A new formula in the form of a general classification of 36 teams has been put in place and the competing teams, as well as the general public, are only now beginning to really understand its interest. This grows logically, also because continental monsters are in danger.

The calendar is such that the race for qualification is a little shaky. Some teams entered the tournament facing several “half-knives” and piled up the points, while others directly met the cream of the crop and will finish against much more affordable opposition. Hence the difficulty in getting a real overall idea and this is the limit of the exercise.

Formally, here is how this revisited Champions League works, according to article 17 of the UEFA Champions League regulations:

All matches in the league stage are played under the championship system, with each club meeting eight opponents in single matches. Each club plays four home matches and four away matches.

In principle, a club does not play more than two home or away matches in a row, and each club plays one home match and one away match on the first two and last two match days. The UEFA Administration may deviate from these rules if necessary.

The 36 clubs are classified within a single league according to their results (3 points for a victory, 1 point for a draw and 0 points for a defeat).

Clubs ranked 1st to 8th in the league stage qualify for the round of 16. Clubs ranked 9th to 24th qualify for the play-off matches of the knockout stage. Clubs ranked 25th to 36th are eliminated.

Even the number of points on the clock is debated, among followers, statisticians and even UEFA simulations. According to the continental body, to pass the first phase of the competition, it would be necessary to reach 7.8 points on average. But in fact, depending on how this first version goes, it should be a little more.

The specialists at Mets Data, on X, announced that they had launched around ten thousand simulations for the current financial year. For them, with 12 points on the clock, it’s certain, you will be in the top 24 and you will compete in the round of 16. With 11 points, it’s almost in the pocket (99.8%); with 10 it is very likely (87%); with 9 it becomes complicated (46%); while with 8, you have to start praying (11%).

These calculations are necessarily of interest to those who are currently in difficulty, such as Real Madrid (24th with 6 points) and St-Germain (25th with 4 points). Even Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, with its 8 pawns, is not proud. But they are also scrutinized with interest in (11th with 10 points), for example. Because the French can 87% take it easy and field an second team. Enough to distort the race for qualification a little and this is one of the limits of this formula.

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