We’ve been waiting for Cayden Primeau to hatch for almost six years. Six years we’ve been clinging to the hope that one day, the Canadiens’ goaltender will really be the “steal” or the “dolphin” that we were sold. “Patience”, we implored in 2021. In 2022. In 2023. Last winter, when he played two or three games per month as the third wheel of the bike, behind Samuel Montembeault and Jake Allen.
Published at 5:00 a.m.
Here we are almost in 2025. Cayden Primeau has surpassed the 50-game mark in the National Hockey League. This is starting to be a good sample. Where does he rank, in career, compared to everyone who has kept goals at least 50 times in the National League since the 2000-2001 season?
· 217e out of 218 for save percentage (ahead of Spencer Martin)
· 217e out of 218 for goals allowed average (ahead of Arvid Söderblom)
Horrible statistics. The most worrying thing is that Primeau is not progressing. On the contrary, it is regressing. On Monday, his save percentage was just 84.4%. This is the worst in the entire National League (five games or more). How did it get there? By giving at least three goals in all his starts, without exception. I have rarely seen a professional goalkeeper display as little confidence as Primeau this season.
“He doesn’t do the job,” commented his former goalkeeping instructor with the Canadian, Stéphane Waite, during a lively discussion in our podcast Sort the zoneMonday. Stéphane is one of those who have long requested the patience of fans towards the former star of American university hockey. Early in his career, Primeau had built a solid resume: a silver medal at the World Junior Championship, just about every NCAA Hockey East title imaginable and an all-star nomination. of the American League.
“It’s easy today to say: ah, Primeau, I’ve been saying that for years…” laments Waite.
I remember when he came out of Northeastern, everyone was like, wow, he broke records, he’ll be good. What we didn’t know then, and what we know now, are all the imponderables that happened in his career.
Stéphane Waite, former CH goalkeeper instructor
Even though he has been shuttling between Laval and Montreal for half a dozen years, Cayden Primeau has still not reached the threshold of 200 professional games.
“We scrapped its development,” continues Waite. Not on purpose. There were injuries. There was COVID. The times we brought him up to Montreal because there was no one else there and he didn’t play for two weeks. It happened so often. […] Why did we keep Primeau last year? To know [s’il peut faire le travail]you have to play it. That’s why they kept it. Right now, he’s not doing the job. I’m the first to say that we would do him a favor to send him to Laval for two weeks. »
As is often the case with the Canadian’s hopes, there will be supporters who demand even more patience. They will tell me that he is young (it’s true). That he’s only 25 (it’s true). That at the same age, Samuel Montembeault, Corey Crawford and Adin Hill were not starters in the NHL (that’s also true).
Except that in history, for a goalkeeper who hatched late like Montembeault, how many others have never managed to establish themselves as number one or establish themselves as assistants? Immensely more.
This is survivor bias. A prejudice which consists of overestimating the chances of success (here, those of Primeau) by targeting statistical exceptions rather than the entire group.
Because Samuel Montembeault surprised after 25 years, Cayden Primeau can do it, so we must keep him, while we forget goalkeepers like Justus Annunen, Felix Sandström, Jonas Johansson, Eric Comrie and Spencer Martin who eke out a living between the National League and subsidiaries. Moreover, among the 218 goalkeepers in the sample mentioned above, most of the worst have played between 50 and 100 games, rather than 250 or 500. We find this same reflex with the draft. When we think of the potential of a second-round pick, we picture PK Subban or Lane Hutson, when statistically there are six times as many supporting players like Jesse Ylönen or Ben Maxwell.
I agree with Stéphane Waite; At this point, Cayden Primeau needs a stay with the Laval Rocket. This is necessary for him to regain his confidence. The risk is that the Canadian loses him on waivers for absolutely nothing. And then? It’s not like Primeau is the flavor of the month in the NHL right now. He’s the worst goalkeeper on the circuit! In the unlikely event that it was claimed, then so be it.
We’ve been touring the garden for almost six years. It’s time to try new seeds.
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