Nations League, qualifications for the World Cup, play-offs: the calendar concocted by UEFA is a real headache. We tried to decipher it for you, and it can hurt your head.
It has been written enough: the year 2024 was dark for the Devils, beaten six times in the last ten games, for only two victories. Belgium finished in a dismal third place in their Nations League group and will have to go through the play-offs.
The focus will then be on qualifying for the 2026 World Cup. As a reminder, 48 teams will qualify for this edition, including 16 European teams. These will therefore be the twelve winners of their qualifying group, as well as the four winners of the play-offs taking over the runners-up in each group and the four Nations League group winners drafted.
Incomprehensible, you say?
These Nations League play-offs, like the quarter-finals, will be played on March 20 and 23, well after the World Cup qualifying draw, scheduled for December 13. The 54 European teams entered in the UEFA qualifiers will be distributed as follows: six groups of five teams, six groups of four teams.
This therefore means that dates overlap: the quarter-finals and the play-offs fall at the same time as the first two qualifying days for the World Cup. So how does UEFA plan to solve the problem?
It’s not that simple. The eight teams qualified for the quarter-finals of the Nations League will not yet know their World Cup qualifying group after the draw. Quite simply because the semi-finalists will absolutely have to be placed in a group of four teams, since they will reserve the international break in June for the Final 4 of this Nations League.
Truncated Nations League quarter-finals?
These nations, in the World Cup qualifying groups, will be placed like this “winner of the first quarter-final, loser of the first quarter-final, winner of the second quarter-final”, etc. The countries concerned will therefore find themselves with two group possibilities. They will be paid, with certainty, into group “X”, in the event of victory, and into group “Y” in the event of defeat. Which raises a problem for some.
The Nations League does not attract many people, it could be quite easy to envisage losing the quarter-final almost voluntarily if it is considered that the draw reserved for the loser is the most interesting. A regulation which therefore concerns France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Italy, the Netherlands and the last two teams which will qualify this Tuesday evening. At the moment, these are Croatia and Denmark.
And for the Devils?
For Belgium, too, all this has an impact. With their play-off, the Devils have a slightly better chance of finding themselves in a group of four teams. This would mean that the international break in March would be reserved for the Nations League play-offs, and that of June for two friendly matches, before the start of qualifying in September.
If the Devils end up in a group of four, it will likely be with several teams highlighted in orange, below. Belgium would then not meet any of the small teams in pot 5. In a group of five, the opponents would be part of the teams left “blank”.
However, ten of the twelve residents of pot 1 will still play in the Nations League in March. Some countries will therefore have to combine the two, while England and Switzerland, for whom the Nations League is over, will more than likely be placed in a group of 5. A real headache.
24 teams ???????? will be unable to play WC qualifiers in March 2025 due to UNL quarterfinals and play-offs.
This is how they’re currently projected to be distributed across pots.
???? ENG ???????????????????????????? and SUI ???????? are more likely to be in a group of 5.
???? There will be at least two ???? teams… pic.twitter.com/zwn1qMBzbB
— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata)
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