The Greens seem to be raising their heads in recent weeks and taking stock of the difficulty of the Ligue 1 championship. The collective disaster in Nice (8-0) could have served as a turning point and a trigger. It is now a question for ASSE to confirm the 4 points taken against direct competitors recently (Nantes and Auxerre). Since the start of the season, several players have been singled out, including Gautier Larsonneur. But are the first criticisms that are being raised justified? Response elements with statistics.
A delicate goalkeeper… like his team
Voted best goalkeeper in Ligue 2 last season and rightly so, Gautier Larsonneur is less unanimous at the start of the season. It must be said that the level has gone up a notch and that logically the opposing attackers are… better. Several supporters’ voices have been raised since the start of the season, expressing their feelings of less serenity from the Saint-Etienne goalkeeper or even less good intrinsic performances. There are undoubtedly multiple explanations: individual performances, collective performances, adversity… But what do the statistics say after 7 days of Ligue 1?
AS Saint-Étienne is the team which has conceded the most goals this season (18) due in particular to the sinkings of Brest (4-0) and Niçois (8-0). Consequently, Gautier Larsonneur having played all of ASSE’s matches, he is the goalkeeper who has conceded the most goals. Behind him, we logically find goalkeepers belonging to teams also playing maintenance: 15 goals for Arthur Desmas (Le Havre) and Donovan Léon (Auxerre), then with 13 goals, Yahia Fofana (Angers) and more surprisingly Marc Bizot ( Brest).
The ASSE goalkeeper among those playing for maintenance
It is interesting to note that if we compare the number of goals conceded to the number of matches played, two Montpellier goalkeepers do worse:
- Benjamin Lecomte (MHSC): 3.25 goals conceded/match (4 matches played)
- Dimitry Bertaud (MHSC): 2.67 goals conceded/match (3 matches played)
- Gautier Larsonneur (ASSE): 2.57 goals conceded/match (7 matches played)
- Arthur Desmas (HAC): 2.14 goals conceded/match (7 matches played)
- Donovan Léon (AJA): 2.14 goals conceded/match (7 matches played)
- Karl-Johan Johnsson (RCSA): 2 goals conceded/match (3 matches played)
But what is the typology of the 18 goals conceded by Gautier Larsonneur?
- 4 goals from penalties (highest total in Ligue 1)
- 0 goals from free kicks
- 2 goals from corners (only Donovan Léon has conceded more, 3)
- 1 own goal (Batubinsika against Nice)
One interesting statistic to look at is PSxG (Post-Shot xG). This statistic provides information on the number of goals conceded depending on the probability that the goalkeeper saves the shot. In other words, PSxG estimates the probability of a shot scoring a goal. According to this statistic, 14.5 goals conceded by Larsonneur were expected since the start of the season. Only Arthur Desmas has a higher PSxG (16.3). It is important to note that CSCs are not taken into account in the statistics.
Outside of CSC, Gautier Larsonneur conceded 17 goals. His PSxG is 14.5 so his PSxG+/- differential (expected post-shot btus – the number of goals conceded) is negative (-2.5) which means that the ASSE goalkeeper has conceded 2.5 goals more than expected. On average per match, Gautier Larsonneur concedes 0.35 goals more than expected. But it’s far from being the worst in terms of performance on its line.
Several explanatory factors
PSxG-GA/90 ranking (post-shot expected goals minus goals conceded per 90 minutes):
- Benjamin Lecomte (MHSC): -1.06
- Dimitry Bertaud (MHSC) : -0.56
- Marco Bizot (SB29): -0.41
- Donovan Leon (AJA) : -0.41
- Guillaume Remains (TFC): -0.36
- Gautier Larsonneur (ASSE): -0.35
- Dorde Petrovic (RCSA) : -0.26
- Steve Mandanda (SRFC): -0.26
- Alban Lafont (FCN): -0.14
Conversely, among the most efficient goalkeepers, we find Marcin Bulka (OGCN, +0.47) or a certain Brice Samba whom the Greens are preparing to meet (RCL, +0.38).
Finally, the last statistic informing about the quality of shots on target received: PSxG/SoT. A higher number indicates that shots on target received are more difficult to stop:
- Arthur Desmas (HAC): 0.38
- Dimitry Bertaud (MHSC) : 0.36
- Yahia Fofana (SCO) : 0.34
- Lucas Perri (Lyon) : 0.33
- Benjamin Lecomte (MHSC): 0.32
- Yehvann Diouf (SDR): 0.31
- Gautier Larsonneur (ASSE): 0.31
- Lucas Chevalier (LOSC): 0.30
- Donovan Leon (AJA) : 0.29
- Karl-Johan Johnsson (RCSA) : 0.26
- Steve Mandanda (SRFC): 0.26
- Dorde Petrovic (RCSA) : 0.26
- Guillaume Remains (TFC): 0.26
- Marcin Bulka (OGCN) : 0.24
- Geronimo Rulli (OM) : 0.24
- Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG): 0.23
- Marco Bizot (SB29): 0.23
- Brice Samba (RCL) : 0.19
- Philipp Köhn (ASM): 0.18
- Alban Lafont (FCN): 0.18
Thus, all of these statistics show confirm the plurality of possible explanations to understand Gautier Larsonneur’s delicate start to the season:
- Certainly, his individual performances on his line are less good currently (PSxG-GA/90: -0.35)
- But, the quality of shots received is better than average (PSxG/SoT: 0.31), which can be explained by the quality of the opposing attackers but also by poor positioning of the defense in front of him for example.
- Furthermore, among the 18 goals, 5 are more attributable to his teammates than to himself in the first place (the 4 penalties and the CSC).
- Ultimately, responsibilities are shared and it is always important to keep in the back of our minds that the collective disaster in Nice greatly weighs down these statistics and in an abnormal way (we hope).
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