KANSAS CITY | The debate has been raging for a few years now, but it was reignited again last week. As the American Conference final between the Chiefs and the Bills in Kansas City approaches, voices are being raised as to whether the Chiefs are favored in terms of arbitration. What is it really?
Last Saturday, anyone convinced that the Chiefs have a clear advantage because quarterback Patrick Mahomes would be overprotected was served. The Texans were penalized twice for roughness on plays that, objectively, were very questionable.
Should we conclude that the Chiefs are taking advantage of the situation year after year? The figures show that it is not as clear as some people make it out to be.
And one thing is certain, the referees will be really scrutinized at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, at a time when doubts are reaching their peak.
While waiting for the duel, Mahomes mentioned at a press briefing in the last hours that it is a storm in a glass of water.
“I don’t feel like we’re favored. At the end of the day, I’m just trying to play football. I try to do everything I can to win matches and I live with the results. That’s what we preach here in Kansas City.”
Critical situations
A few questionable decisions in the Chiefs’ duel against the Texans last week brought the issue of officiating to the forefront more than ever.
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In the eyes of denigrators, in critical moments of a game, the referees often save the Chiefs’ butts.
According to data compiled by theAssociated Pressthis is not the case.
Over the past two seasons, including the playoffs, when a game is in the fourth quarter or overtime, the Chiefs have been penalized 47 times for 307 yards. Their rivals, in the same context, received 48 penalties for 340 yards.
If we go back three seasons, the Chiefs were penalized 147 yards more than their opponents. This is the 12the worst differential in the league.
In games decided by eight points or less, we also notice that the Chiefs have obtained four fewer first downs via penalties than their opponents, in a third or fourth down situation, since 2018.
A series problem?
Throughout their repeated success in recent years in the playoffs, the Chiefs find themselves under the microscope due to arbitration issues.
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Where there is reason to ask completely legitimate questions is more specifically in the playoffs.
The Sharp Analysis site has raised interesting figures to this effect. Since 2021, the Chiefs have played 11 playoff games. It never happened that their opponents were penalized less than them. Ten times the Chiefs were penalized less and once the number of penalties was the same.
In total, the Chiefs were punished 36 times in these 11 games, compared to 66 for their opponents.
We must then distinguish between penalties which do not involve the judgment of an official (such as an offside or too many players on the field) and those which involve a judgment. And that’s where the problem lies, in the eyes of the Chiefs’ detractors.
Also according to Sharp Analysis, in their last 11 playoff games, the Chiefs have been punished three times on defense for receiver interference, while their rivals have committed this same cardinal sin 11 times.
The Chiefs were also punished once for roughing the quarterback. Their opponents were reprimanded seven times for the same offense.
This is why some are wondering loudly if Mahomes is protected by the league because of his star player status.
“I didn’t feel anything different [comme vétéran par rapport à ses débuts]Mahomes replied this week. There are new referees and new circumstances every season. In my mind, I keep playing and what happens happens,” he said.
Offensive lineman Joe Thuney, who won two Super Bowls with the Patriots between 2016 and 2020 before joining the Chiefs, was even asked if he noticed any similarities between the referees’ treatment of to Mahomes and his former teammate Tom Brady.
“I let the referees take care of the officiating. I concentrate on what I have to do and I never notice anything,” he sighed, shaking his head in disbelief.
A referee under the microscope
The head referee for the American Conference Final between the Bills and Chiefs will be Clete Blakeman.
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Know that on Sunday, for the one-on-one duel between the Bills and the Chiefs, Clete Blakeman will be the chief official. Why bring it up? Because when he is in office, Mahomes has a modest record of six wins and five losses. More importantly, Blakeman has not called any quarterback roughing penalties against the Chiefs’ opponents in the last seven games he has officiated.
No one can say he gave Mahomes preferential treatment in the past.
Ultimately, is it also possible that the Chiefs are simply more disciplined and better managed than many of their rivals, as the Patriots were under Bill Belichick? This cannot be quantified, but it must be considered in the equation.
