In the absence of the United States, talks between Iran and Europe are moving forward timidly

The discussions – held in a secret location not far from Geneva – were “serious, frank and constructive”, said Monday evening, after the first of two days of talks, the Iranian, French, British and German diplomats, including representatives had already met at the end of November in Switzerland. Tuesday evening, the head of Iranian diplomacy added that he had “felt a serious desire” on the part of France, the United Kingdom and Germany to resume negotiations on Iranian nuclear power.

This meeting, which the two parties had agreed not to describe as a “negotiation”, but as a simple “consultation”, was to allow Iran and the European powers to discuss several subjects, including the burning issue of Iranian nuclear development.

Because behind this diplomatic language lies a real urgency. European countries are concerned about the progress made by Iran on its nuclear program. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) – the United Nations nuclear watchdog – Iran is now capable of enriching uranium to 60% purity, a level close to 90%. necessary for the production of a nuclear weapon. While France, the United Kingdom and Germany have called on the Iranian authorities to put an end to their “nuclear escalation,” Iran defends its right to this energy for civilian purposes.

Weakened by the military setbacks that Israel inflicted on its “proxies” in the region – among them Hezbollah and Hamas – and the fall of the regime of its ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Iran is also facing a serious economic crisis. In this context, Tehran is seeking a lifting of Western sanctions against it.

For the Iranian authorities, an agreement with European powers is all the more urgent as in October 2025 certain clauses of the Vienna Agreement on Iranian Nuclear Power (JCPOA), signed in 2015, will expire. In particular that of the “snapback” mechanism which allows Paris, London, or Berlin to unilaterally reestablish international sanctions against Iran. A lever that the European powers will no longer be able to use once this deadline has passed.

However, Iran’s relations with European countries, historically better than those between Tehran and Washington, broken for 45 years, have deteriorated in recent years. At issue: the deliveries of Iranian drones to Moscow as part of the war in Ukraine, as well as the repression of the women’s revolt in Iran after the death of Mahsa Amini.

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Washington absent

But any new agreement will necessarily go through the United States, absent during the discussions in Geneva.

In 2018, under the leadership of Donald Trump, the country withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement. The Republican had long criticized this treaty – one of the main successes of his predecessor Barack Obama’s foreign policy – ​​which he considered unequal. The agreement, also signed by France, the United Kingdom, Germany, China and Russia, imposes limits on Iranian nuclear development in exchange for a lifting of international sanctions targeting Tehran. Limits from which Iran freed itself following the withdrawal of the United States accompanied by sanctions.

“Today, everyone knows that the agreement has become obsolete,” notes David Rigoulet-Roze, associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS), a think tank based in Paris. “It is because since its signature Tehran has made exponential progress in terms of enrichment and quantity of uranium which no longer have anything to do with a civilian horizon, according to the IAEA itself. It is therefore difficult to see how an Iran with exacerbated nationalism could submit to this agreement.

According to the researcher, Iran’s obtaining a nuclear weapon no longer depends on a “technical question, but on a political choice.” And the fact that the country is under pressure and weakened could encourage it to equip itself with a deterrent weapon, namely the nuclear bomb.

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Complicated future negotiations

Since taking office last August, the new Iranian president, Massoud Pezeshkian, has expressed several times his wish to relaunch negotiations with his partners on the international scene.

“The president and his foreign affairs team would prefer to strike a deal with the new US administration. This may or may not include European powers,” said Farzan Sabet, Middle East security expert at the Geneva Graduate Institute. “The Iranian government wants to obtain sanctions relief and reduce tensions with Washington in order to avoid a military confrontation with the United States and find itself in a position where it would feel obliged to develop nuclear weapons,” adds -he.

The problem, underlines the expert, is that the president is not the only decision-maker on the nuclear issue, because he depends on the position of other more powerful actors within the Iranian system, in particular those of the Supreme Leader and the guards of the revolution. “It is difficult to know whether and how Iran’s real red lines have evolved on the nuclear issue and other important issues, particularly in light of recent events that have led to an erosion of its security and influence,” he adds.

Return the Donald Trump

The return of Donald Trump to the White House on January 20 also brings its share of uncertainties. The Republican is in favor of a hard line towards Iran and has surrounded himself in his new administration with figures who share this approach. But Donald Trump also sees himself as a maker of “deals” and could, as he did by visiting North Korea during his first term, be tempted to go it alone and negotiate directly with Tehran.

For David Rigoulet-Roze, it is indeed possible that Donald Trump will try to negotiate while leaving the Europeans aside, but he then risks being confronted with a dilemma. The future US president aims to be a staunch supporter of Israel and has suggested he could let the Jewish state strike Iranian nuclear facilities. At the same time, the Republican wants to present himself as a head of state favorable to peace. “What is certain is that if Donald Trump wants an agreement, it will be even more binding on Iran than the JCPOA. And the problem is that Tehran will not accept it,” concludes the researcher.

If the signals seem green for an upcoming meeting between Paris, London, Berlin and Tehran, no date or location have been confirmed at this stage.

Text reread and verified by Virginie Mangin

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