A lower ranking
The Union is currently ranked ninth in our championship. A ranking far from what Unionist supporters have been accustomed to in recent years. After so many days, Felice Mazzù’s team was in the lead during the 2021-2022 season, just like that of Alexander Blessin two years later. Between the two, during the 2022-2023 season, Karel Geraerts allowed the Union to position themselves in fourth place mid-classic phase. One of the reasons for this lower ranking is the results achieved away from Stade Marien. Pocognoli’s team has not yet won a single away match in the Pro League, with six points out of twenty-four. The observation is also the same in Europe, with three defeats in three matches. Only the trip to Eupen in the Belgian Cup was synonymous with victory.
A record name of nulls
When we take a closer look at the Union’s results this season, we realize that the team led by Anthony Moris has achieved a draw more than half the time in the league (eight draws in fifteen matches). In the 21st century, no Pro League club has more often shared the stake after fifteen days of the championship. Teams like La Louvière, Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht had, however, already reached the mark of eight draws in fifteen matches. Just like OHL this season, which achieved a draw this weekend against… the Union.
Expected goals: an underperformance that hides good figures
Comparing the “expected goals” (XG) allows us to put figures on the lack of realism of the Pocognoli team. This is not just an illusion: given the quality of the chances created, the Unionist offensive players should have scored much more than their 18 goals. According to the XG, 26.9 goals should have fallen. That is an average of 1.8 per match lower than Blessin’s team (2.1) close to that of Mazzu (1.9), but higher than that of Geraerts (1.6), sublimated by hyper attackers realistic, unlike this season. Currently, the Union has the eleventh best attack in the Pro League. At mid-classic phase, Mazzù’s team (40 goals) and Blessin’s (35 goals) had scored the most goals in the entire Pro League, while Geraerts’ (31 goals) was the third best attack in the league. Belgium.
Goals against: continuing
Buoyed by defensive solidity since its return to D1, the Union remains impervious this season. If they have only conceded thirteen goals, Moris & Co have an “expected goals against” figure of 15.9, or 1.06 on average per match, in line with 23-24 (1), 22- 23 (1.09) and 21-22 (1.04). Only OHL is doing better this season. These figures allow Brussels to currently have the third best defense in the Kingdom behind Antwerp and Anderlecht (12 goals conceded).
Points taken: significantly less, however…
Obviously, with 22 points taken mid-classic phase, the Union 24-25 suffers from the comparison with its predecessors. But if we look at the “expected points”, – a statistic which will take into account the results that a team should have obtained depending on the quality of the chances and the defensive work -, this team is at 28.4 units, or 1. 9 points expected per match. The same average as under Mazzu, a little worse than under Blessin (2.04), but better than under Geraerts (1.7). All that remains is to transform the “deserved” points into real units, now.
